Abstract:
In this work, we apply the Monte Carlo analysis to evaluate the uncertainty of modelled summer maximum ozone diurnal peak concentrations (Cmax) in the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires (MABA), Argentina resulting from uncertainties in the Generic Reaction Set (GRS) input variables, using the DAUMOD-GRS model. Values of Cmax occurring at early morning or late evening hours present greater uncertainties than those occurring around midday hours. Uncertainty of Cmax is dominated by that in the GRS ozone initial concentration at all analysed receptors, with relative contributions varying between 67.5-89.8%. The second most important variable is the nitrogen oxides initial concentration, whose relative contribution may increase (in our experiments up to 11.7%) depending on the uncertainties of the GRS input variables. © 2018 Hungarian Meteorological Service. All Rights Reserved.
Registro:
| Documento: |
Conferencia
|
| Título: | Sensitivity of modelled urban background ozone concentrations to uncertainties in the grs input variables |
| Autor: | Pineda Rojas, A.L.; Mazzeo, N.A.; Ferenczi Z.; Bozo L.; Puskas M.T. |
| Filiación: | National Scientific and Technological Research Council (CONICET), Argentina
Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA/CONICET-UBA), DCAO/FCEN, UMI-IFAECI/CNRS, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Department of Chemical Engineering, Avellaneda Regional Faculty, National Technological University, Buenos Aires, Argentina
|
| Palabras clave: | DAUMOD-GRS; Monte Carlo method; Ozone; Sensitivity; Uncertainty; Atmospheric movements; Monte Carlo methods; Nitrogen oxides; Ozone; DAUMOD-GRS; Generic reaction set; Initial concentration; Monte carlo analysis; Peak concentrations; Relative contribution; Sensitivity; Uncertainty; Uncertainty analysis |
| Año: | 2016
|
| Volumen: | 2016-May
|
| Página de inicio: | 36
|
| Página de fin: | 40
|
| Título revista: | 17th International Conference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes, HARMO 2016
|
| Título revista abreviado: | HARMO - Int. Conf. Harmon. Atmos. Dispers. Model. Regul. Purp., Proc.
|
| Registro: | https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_97896399_v2016-May_n_p36_PinedaRojas |
Referencias:
- Azzi, M., Johnson, G., Cope, M., An introduction to the generic reaction set photochemical smog model (1992) Proc. 11th Int. Clean Air Conf., pp. 451-462
- Bergin, M.S., Noblet, G.S., Petrini, K., Dhieux, J.R., Milford, J.B., Harley, R.A., Formal uncertainty analysis of a lagrangian photochemical air pollution model (1999) Environ. Sci. Technol., 33, pp. 1116-1126
- Hanna, S.R., Chang, J.C., Fernau, M.E., Monte Carlo estimates of uncertainties in predictions by a photochemical grid model (UAM-IV) due to uncertainties in input variables (1998) Atmos. Environ., 32 (21), pp. 3619-3628
- Hanna, S.R., Paine, R., Heinold, D., Kintigh, E., Baker, D., Uncertainties in air toxics calculated by the dispersion models AERMOD and ISCST3 in the houston ship channel Area (2007) J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., 46, pp. 1372-1382
- Hanna, S.R., Russell, A.G., Wilkinson, J.G., Vukovich, J., Hansen, D.A., Monte carlo estimation of uncertainties in BEIS3 emission outputs and their effects on uncertainties in chemical transport model predictions (2005) J. Geophys. Res., 110, p. D01302
- Hurley, P.J., Physick, W.L., Luhar, A.K., TAPM: A practical approach to prognostic meteorological and air pollution modelling (2005) Environ. Model. and Softw., 20, pp. 737-752
- Kim, C.-H., Park, S.-U., Song, C.-K., A simple semi-empirical photochemical model for the simulation of ozone concentration in the Seoul metropolitan area in Korea (2005) Atmos. Environ., 39, pp. 5597-5607
- Mazzeo, N.A., Venegas, L.E., Air pollution model for an urban area (1991) Atmos. Res., 26, pp. 165-179
- Moore, G.E., Londergan, R.J., Sampled monte carlo uncertainty analysis for photochemical grid models (2001) Atmos. Environ., 35, pp. 4863-4876
- Pineda Rojas, A.L., Simple atmospheric dispersion model to estimate hourly ground-level nitrogen dioxide and ozone concentrations at urban scale (2014) Environ. Model. and Softw., 59, pp. 127-134
- Pineda Rojas, A.L., Venegas, L.E., Upgrade of the DAUMOD atmospheric dispersion model to estimate urban background NO2 concentrations (2013) Atmos. Res., 120-121, pp. 147-154
- Pineda Rojas, A.L., Venegas, L.E., Spatial distribution of ground-level urban background O3 concentrations in the metropolitan area of buenos aires, Argentina (2013) Environ. Pollut., 183, pp. 159-165
- Pineda Rojas, A.L., Venegas, L.E., Mazzeo, N.A., Uncertainty of modelled urban background O3 peak concentrations and its sensitivity to input data perturbations based on the Monte Carlo analysis (2016) Submitted to Atmos. Environ. Under Review.
- Venegas, L.E., Mazzeo, N.A., Pineda Rojas, A.L., Chapter 14: Evaluation of an emission inventory and air pollution in the metropolitan area of buenos aires (2011) Air Quality-Models and Applications, pp. 261-288. , D. Popovic ed Editorial In-TechA4 -
Citas:
---------- APA ----------
Pineda Rojas, A.L., Mazzeo, N.A., Ferenczi Z., Bozo L. & Puskas M.T.
(2016)
. Sensitivity of modelled urban background ozone concentrations to uncertainties in the grs input variables. 17th International Conference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes, HARMO 2016, 2016-May, 36-40.
Recuperado de https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_97896399_v2016-May_n_p36_PinedaRojas [ ]
---------- CHICAGO ----------
Pineda Rojas, A.L., Mazzeo, N.A., Ferenczi Z., Bozo L., Puskas M.T.
"Sensitivity of modelled urban background ozone concentrations to uncertainties in the grs input variables"
. 17th International Conference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes, HARMO 2016 2016-May
(2016) : 36-40.
Recuperado de https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_97896399_v2016-May_n_p36_PinedaRojas [ ]
---------- MLA ----------
Pineda Rojas, A.L., Mazzeo, N.A., Ferenczi Z., Bozo L., Puskas M.T.
"Sensitivity of modelled urban background ozone concentrations to uncertainties in the grs input variables"
. 17th International Conference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes, HARMO 2016, vol. 2016-May, 2016, pp. 36-40.
Recuperado de https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_97896399_v2016-May_n_p36_PinedaRojas [ ]
---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Pineda Rojas, A.L., Mazzeo, N.A., Ferenczi Z., Bozo L., Puskas M.T. Sensitivity of modelled urban background ozone concentrations to uncertainties in the grs input variables. HARMO - Int. Conf. Harmon. Atmos. Dispers. Model. Regul. Purp., Proc. 2016;2016-May:36-40.
Available from: https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_97896399_v2016-May_n_p36_PinedaRojas [ ]
