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Abstract:

Dynamical models are now widely used to provide forecasts of above or below average seasonal mean temperatures and precipitation, with growing interest in their ability to forecast climate extremes on a seasonal time scale. This study assesses the skill of the ENSEMBLES multi-model ensemble to forecast the 90th and 10th percentiles of both seasonal temperature and precipitation, using a number of metrics of 'extremeness'. Skill is generally similar or slightly lower to that for seasonal means, with skill strongly influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. As documented in previous studies, much of the skill in forecasting extremes can be related to skill in forecasting the seasonal mean value, with skill for extremes generally lower although still significant. Despite this, little relationship is found between the skill of forecasting the upper and lower tails of the distribution of daily values. © 2015 The Authors.

Registro:

Documento: Artículo
Título:The ability of a multi-model seasonal forecasting ensemble to forecast the frequency of warm, cold and wet extremes
Autor:Pepler, A.S.; Díaz, L.B.; Prodhomme, C.; Doblas-Reyes, F.J.; Kumar, A.
Filiación:ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera/CONICET-UBA, DCAO/FCEN, UMI IFAECI/CNRS, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Spain
Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Spain
Barcelona Supercomputing Center-Centro Nacional de Supercomputación (BSC-CNS), Spain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MI, United States
Palabras clave:Climate model; Ensemble; ENSO; Extremes; Seasonal forecasting; climate modeling; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; ensemble forecasting; precipitation (climatology); seasonal variation; temperature profile
Año:2015
Volumen:9
Página de inicio:68
Página de fin:77
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2015.06.005
Título revista:Weather and Climate Extremes
Título revista abreviado:Weather Clim. Extremes
ISSN:22120947
Registro:https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_22120947_v9_n_p68_Pepler

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Citas:

---------- APA ----------
Pepler, A.S., Díaz, L.B., Prodhomme, C., Doblas-Reyes, F.J. & Kumar, A. (2015) . The ability of a multi-model seasonal forecasting ensemble to forecast the frequency of warm, cold and wet extremes. Weather and Climate Extremes, 9, 68-77.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2015.06.005
---------- CHICAGO ----------
Pepler, A.S., Díaz, L.B., Prodhomme, C., Doblas-Reyes, F.J., Kumar, A. "The ability of a multi-model seasonal forecasting ensemble to forecast the frequency of warm, cold and wet extremes" . Weather and Climate Extremes 9 (2015) : 68-77.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2015.06.005
---------- MLA ----------
Pepler, A.S., Díaz, L.B., Prodhomme, C., Doblas-Reyes, F.J., Kumar, A. "The ability of a multi-model seasonal forecasting ensemble to forecast the frequency of warm, cold and wet extremes" . Weather and Climate Extremes, vol. 9, 2015, pp. 68-77.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2015.06.005
---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Pepler, A.S., Díaz, L.B., Prodhomme, C., Doblas-Reyes, F.J., Kumar, A. The ability of a multi-model seasonal forecasting ensemble to forecast the frequency of warm, cold and wet extremes. Weather Clim. Extremes. 2015;9:68-77.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2015.06.005