Navegar

Colección

Datos Estadísticas

Artículo

Bellprat, O.; Lott, F.C.; Gulizia, C.; Parker, H.R.; Pampuch, L.A.; Pinto, I.; Ciavarella, A.; Stott, P.A. "Unusual past dry and wet rainy seasons over Southern Africa and South America from a climate perspective" (2015) Weather and Climate Extremes. 9:36-46
Estamos trabajando para incorporar este artículo al repositorio
Consulte el artículo en la página del editor
Consulte la política de Acceso Abierto del editor

Abstract:

Southern Africa and Southern South America have experienced recent extremes in dry and wet rainy seasons which have caused severe socio-economic damages. Selected past extreme events are here studied, to estimate how human activity has changed the risk of the occurrence of such events, by applying an event attribution approach (Stott et al., 2004)comprising global climate models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). Our assessment shows that models' representation of mean precipitation variability over Southern South America is not adequate to make a robust attribution statement about seasonal rainfall extremes in this region. Over Southern Africa, we show that unusually dry austral summers as occurred during 2002/2003 have become more likely, whereas unusually wet austral summers like that of 1999/2000 have become less likely due to anthropogenic climate change. There is some tentative evidence that the risk of extreme high 5-day precipitation totals (as observed in 1999/2000) have increased in the region. These results are consistent with CMIP5 models projecting a general drying trend over SAF during December-January-February (DJF) but also an increase in atmospheric moisture availability to feed heavy rainfall events when they do occur. Bootstrapping the confidence intervals of the fraction of attributable risk has demonstrated estimates of attributable risk are very uncertain, if the events are very rare. The study highlights some of the challenges in making an event attribution study for precipitation using seasonal precipitation and extreme 5-day precipitation totals and considering natural drivers such as ENSO in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. © 2015 The Authors.

Registro:

Documento: Artículo
Título:Unusual past dry and wet rainy seasons over Southern Africa and South America from a climate perspective
Autor:Bellprat, O.; Lott, F.C.; Gulizia, C.; Parker, H.R.; Pampuch, L.A.; Pinto, I.; Ciavarella, A.; Stott, P.A.
Filiación:Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Spain
Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom
Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera/CONICET-UBA, DCAO/FCEN, UMI IFAECI/CNRS, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate, Reading, RG6 6BB, United Kingdom
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences (IAG), University of São Paulo (USP), São Paulo, Brazil
Climate System Analysis Group (CSAG), University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
Palabras clave:Climate change; Event attribution; Extreme precipitation; South Africa; South America; Teleconnection; atmosphere-ocean coupling; climate change; climate modeling; dry season; extreme event; human activity; precipitation intensity; seasonal variation; teleconnection; wet season; South Africa; South America
Año:2015
Volumen:9
Página de inicio:36
Página de fin:46
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2015.07.001
Título revista:Weather and Climate Extremes
Título revista abreviado:Weather Clim. Extremes
ISSN:22120947
Registro:https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_22120947_v9_n_p36_Bellprat

Referencias:

  • Allen, M., Liability for climate change (2003) Nature, 421, pp. 891-892
  • Angélil, O., Stone, D.A., Tadross, M., Tummon, F., Wehner, M., Knutti, R., Attribution of extreme weather to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions: sensitivity to spatial and temporal scales (2014) Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, pp. 2150-2155
  • Ashok, K., Behera, S.K., Rao, S.A., Weng, H., Yamagata, T., El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection (2007) J. Geophys. Res., 112, p. C11007
  • Barros, V.R., Doyle, M.E., Camilloni, I.A., Precipitation trends in southeastern South America: relationship with ENSO phases and with low-level circulation (2008) Theor. Appl. Climatol., 93, pp. 19-33
  • Becker, A., Finger, P., Meyer-Christoffer, A., Rudolf, B., Schamm, K., Schneider, U., Ziese, M., A description of the global land-surface precipitation data products of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre with sample applications including centennial (trend) analysis from 1901 to present (2013) Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss, 5, pp. 921-998
  • Bell, M., Grover, E., Hopp, M., Kestin, T., Lyon, B., Seth, A., IRI Climate Digest February 2002: Climate Impacts (2003), http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/cid/Feb2003/impacts/html, January; Christidis, N., Stott, P.A., Brown, S.J., The role of human activity in the recent warming of extremely warm daytime temperatures (2011) J. Clim., 24, pp. 1922-1930
  • Deser, C., Alexander, M.A., Xie, S.-P., Phillips, A.S., Sea surface temperature variability: patterns and mechanisms (2010) Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 2, pp. 115-143
  • Doblas-Reyes, F.J., García-Serrano, J., Lienert, F., Biescas, A.P., Rodrigues, L.R.L., Seasonal climate predictability and forecasting: status and prospects (2013) Wiley Interdiscip. Rev.: Clim. Change, 4 (4), pp. 245-268
  • Dole, R., Hoerling, M., Perlwitz, J., Eischeid, J., Pegion, P., Zhang, T., Quan, X.-W., Murray, D., Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave? (2011) Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, p. L06702
  • Donat, M.G., Alexander, L.V., Yang, H., Durre, I., Vose, R., Dunn, R.J.H., Willett, K.M., Kitching, S., Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century: The HadEX2 Jdataset (2013) J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, pp. 2098-2118
  • Giorgi, F., Francisco, R., Uncertainties in regional climate change prediction: a regional analysis of ensemble simulations with the HADCM2 coupled AOGCM (2000) Clim. Dyn., 16, pp. 169-182
  • Grimm, A.M., Tedeschi, R.G., ENSO and extreme rainfall events in South America (2009) J. Clim., 22, pp. 1589-1609
  • Grimm, A.M., Barros, V.R., Doyle, M.E., Climate variability in southern South America associated with El Niño and La Niña events (2000) J. Clim., 13, pp. 35-58
  • Held and Soden Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming (2006) J. Clim., 19 (21), pp. 5686-5699
  • Hellmuth, M.E., Moorhead, A., Thomson, M.C., Williams, J., Climate Risk Management in Africa: Learning from Practice (2007) International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), , Columbia University New York, USA
  • Herdies, D.L., Da Silva, A., Silva Dias, M.A.F., Nieto Ferreira, R., Moisture budget of the bimodal pattern of the summer circulation over South America (2002) J. Geophys. Res. (Atmos.), 107 (20D), p. 8075
  • Herring, S.C., Hoerling, M.P., Peterson, T.C., Stott, P.A., Explaining extreme events of 2013 from a climate perspective (2014) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 95, pp. S1-S96
  • Husak, G.J., Michaelsen, J., Funk, C., Use of the gamma distribution to represent monthly rainfall in Africa for drought monitoring applications (2007) Int. J. Climatol., 27, pp. 935-944
  • Climate change 2013: the physical science basis (2013) Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, , Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, P.M. Midgley (Eds.)
  • King, A.D., Lewis, S.C., Perkins, S.E., Alexander, L.V., Donat, M.G., Karoly, D.J., Black, M.T., Limited evidence of anthropogenic influence on the 2011-12 extreme rainfall over southeast australia in explaining extreme events of 2012 from a climate perspective (2013) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 94 (9), pp. S55-S58
  • Kousky, V.E., Pentad outgoing longwave radiation climatology for the South American sector (1988) Rev. Bras. Meteorol., 3, pp. 217-231
  • Kruger, A.C., Observed trends in daily precipitation indices in South Africa: 1910-2004 (2006) Int. J. Clim., 26, pp. 2275-2285
  • Lewis, S.C., Karoly, D.J., Yu, M., Quantitative estimates of anthropogenic contributions to extreme national and State monthly, seasonal and annual average temperatures for Australia (2014) Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, 64, pp. 215-230
  • Lewis, S.C., Karoly, D.J., Anthropogenic contributions to Australia's record summer temperatures of 2013 (2013) Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, pp. 3705-3709
  • Lindesay, J.A., Harrison, M.S.J., Haffner, M.P., The Southern Oscillation and South African rainfall (1986) S. Afr. J. Sci., 82, pp. 196-198
  • Lott, F.C., Christidis, N., Stott, P.A., Can the 2011 East African drought be attributed to human-induced climate change? (2013) Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, pp. 1177-1181
  • Mächel, H., Kapala, A., Flohn, H., Behaviour of the centres of action above the Atlantic since 1881. Part I: characteristics of seasonal and interannual variability (1998) Int. J. Climatol., 18 (1), pp. 1-22
  • Marengo, J.A., Soares, W.R., Saulo, C., Nicolini, M., Climatology of the low-level jet east of the Andes as derived from the NCEP-NCAR reanalyses: characteristics and temporal variability (2004) J. Clim., 17, pp. 2261-2280
  • Minetti, J.L., Vargas, W.M., Vega, B., Costa, M.C., Las sequías en la pampa húmeda: Impacto en la productividad del maíz (2007) Rev. Bras. Meteorol., 22, pp. 218-232
  • (1996) Learning to Predict Climate Variations Associated with El Nino and the Southern Oscillation, , National Academies Press, Washington, DC
  • Neelin, J.D., Jin, F.-F., Syu, H.-H., Variations in ENSO phase locking (2000) J. Clim., 13, pp. 2570-2590
  • Nicholson, S.E., Entekhabi, D., Rainfall variability in equatorial and southern Africa: relationships with sea surface temperatures along the southwestern coast of Africa (1987) J. Appl. Meteorol., 26, pp. 561-578
  • Nogués-Paegle, J., Mo, K., Alternating wet and dry conditions over South America during Summer (1997) Mon. Weather Rev., 125, pp. 279-291
  • Nogués-Paegle, J., Mo, K., Intraseasonal modulation of South American summer precipitation (2000) Mon. Weather Rev., 128, pp. 837-850
  • Olkin, I., Finn, J.D., Correlations redux (1995) Psychol. Bull., 118, pp. 155-164
  • Otto, F.E.L., Jones, R.G., Halladay, K., Allen, M.R., Attribution of changes in precipitation patterns in African rainforests (2013) Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B, 368
  • Otto, F.E.L., Massey, N., vanOldenborgh, G.J., Jones, R.G., Allen, M.R., Reconciling two approaches to attribution of the 2010 Russian heat wave (2012) Geophys. Res. Lett., 39
  • Pall, P., Aina, T., Stone, D.A., Stott, P.A., Nozawa, T., Hilberts, A.G.J., Lohmann, D., Allen, M.R., Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000 (2011) Nature, 470, pp. 382-385
  • Penalba, O.C., Robledo, F.A., Frequency of precipitation in the humid Pampa of Argentina (2005) Atlantic, 40, pp. 30-36
  • Peterson, T.C., Hoerling, M.P., Stott, P.A., Herring, S., Explaining extreme events of 2012 from a climate perspective (2013) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc, 94, pp. S1-S74
  • Papalexiou, S.M., Koutsoyiannis, D., Makropoulos, C., How extreme is extreme? An assessment of daily rainfall distribution tails (2013) Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, pp. 851-862
  • Pisciottano, G.F., Diaz, A.F., Cazes, G., Mechoso, C.R., El Niño-Southern Oscillation impact on rainfall in Uruguay (1994) J. Clim., 7, pp. 1286-1302
  • Rahmstorf, S., Coumou, D., Increase of extreme events in a warming world (2011) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108, pp. 17905-17909
  • Rao, V.B., Hada, K., Characteristics of rainfall over Brazil: annual variations and connections with the Southern Oscillation (1990) Theor. Appl. Climatol., 42, pp. 81-91
  • Rayner, N.A., Parker, D.E., Horton, E.B., Folland, C.K., Alexander, L.V., Rowell, D.P., Kent, E.C., Kaplan, A., Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century (2003) J. Geophys. Res. (Atmos.), 108, p. D14
  • Rivera, J.A., Penalba, O., Trends and spatial patterns of drought affected area in Southern South America (2014) Climate, 2, pp. 264-278
  • Ropelewski, C., Bell, M., Shifts in the statistics of daily rainfall in South America conditional on ENSO phase (2008) J. Clim., 21, pp. 849-865
  • Rouault, M., Richard, Y., Intensity and spatial extent of droughts in Southern Africa (2005) Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, p. L15702
  • Seiler, R.A., Kogan, F., Sullivan, J., AVHRR-based vegetation and temperature condition indices for drought detection in Argentina (1998) Adv. Space Res., 21, pp. 481-484
  • Shiogama, H., Watanabe, M., Imada, Y., Mori, M., Ishii, M., Kimoto, M., An event attribution of the 2010 drought in the South Amazon region using the MIROC5 model (2013) Atmos. Sci. Lett., 14, pp. 170-175
  • Sillmann, J., Kharin, V.V., Zwiers, F.W., Zhang, X., Bronaugh, D., Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. Part 1: model evaluation in the present climate (2013) J. Geophys. Res.
  • Schaller, N., Otto, F.E.L., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Massey, N.R., Sparrow, S., Allan, M.R., The heavy precipitation event of May-June 2013 in the upper Danube and Elbe basins (2014) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 95 (9), pp. S69-S72
  • Sippel, S., Otto, F.E.L., Beyond climatological extremes-assessing how the odds of hydrometeorological extreme events in South-East Europe change in a warming climate (2014) Clim. Change, 125 (3-4), pp. 381-398
  • Stott, P.A., Stone, D.A., Allen, M., Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003 (2004) Nature 432, pp. 610-614
  • Taylor, K.E., Stouffer, R.J., Meehl, G.A., An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design (2012) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, pp. 485-498
  • Trenberth, K.E., The definition of El Niño (1997) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78 (12), pp. 2771-2777
  • Tyson, P.D., Preston-Whyte, R.A., (2000) The Weather and Climate of Southern Africa, p. 396. , Oxford University Press
  • Vera, C.S., Díaz, L., Anthropogenic influence on summer precipitation trends over South America in CMIP5 models (2014) Int. J. Climatol
  • Wolski, P., Stone, D., Tadross, M., Wehner, M., Hewitson, B., Attribution of floods in the Okavango basin, Southern Africa (2014) J. Hydrol., 511, pp. 350-358
  • Zebiak, S.E., Air-sea interaction in the equatorial Atlantic region (1993) J. Clim., 6, pp. 1567-1586
  • Zhou, J.Y., Lau, K.M., Does a monsoon climate exist over South America? (1998) J. Clim., 11, pp. 1020-1040

Citas:

---------- APA ----------
Bellprat, O., Lott, F.C., Gulizia, C., Parker, H.R., Pampuch, L.A., Pinto, I., Ciavarella, A.,..., Stott, P.A. (2015) . Unusual past dry and wet rainy seasons over Southern Africa and South America from a climate perspective. Weather and Climate Extremes, 9, 36-46.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2015.07.001
---------- CHICAGO ----------
Bellprat, O., Lott, F.C., Gulizia, C., Parker, H.R., Pampuch, L.A., Pinto, I., et al. "Unusual past dry and wet rainy seasons over Southern Africa and South America from a climate perspective" . Weather and Climate Extremes 9 (2015) : 36-46.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2015.07.001
---------- MLA ----------
Bellprat, O., Lott, F.C., Gulizia, C., Parker, H.R., Pampuch, L.A., Pinto, I., et al. "Unusual past dry and wet rainy seasons over Southern Africa and South America from a climate perspective" . Weather and Climate Extremes, vol. 9, 2015, pp. 36-46.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2015.07.001
---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Bellprat, O., Lott, F.C., Gulizia, C., Parker, H.R., Pampuch, L.A., Pinto, I., et al. Unusual past dry and wet rainy seasons over Southern Africa and South America from a climate perspective. Weather Clim. Extremes. 2015;9:36-46.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2015.07.001