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Abstract:

We use our mesopause region temperature data from El Leoncito (31.8°S, 69.3°W) to illustrate how the increased length of the data set alone does not simplify trend analysis. This is because the adequate interpretation of trend results does not only depend on the statistical characteristics of the data time series. A longer data set may make unexpected features stand out, which require an explanation before definite conclusions on long-term trends can be drawn. While the rotational temperatures derived at El Leoncito from the OH(6-2) airglow band appear rather homogeneous at first sight, the O2 temperatures measured with the same instrument and optical filter exhibit features strongly reminiscent of Simpson's classical statistical paradox, in that straightforward trends derived from parts show signs opposite to those of the complete data set. The resolution of this paradox requires more efforts to diagnose and remove the impact of instrumental artifacts besides taking any other geophysical variation that does not directly contribute to long-term change into account. Intercomparison with other instruments is certainly useful but may warrant the elimination of new uncertainties discovered in the act. Key Points Airglow temperature data illustrate statistical problems in trend analysis Instrumental artifacts may interfere with trend analysis Satellite overpass data may also be affected by retrieval problems ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Registro:

Documento: Artículo
Título:Simpson's paradox in trend analysis: An example from El Leoncito airglow data
Autor:Scheer, J.; Reisin, E.R.
Filiación:Instituto de Astronomía y Física Del Espacio, CONICET-UBA, Ciudad Universitaria, C.C. 67 Suc. 28, 1428 Buenos Aires, Argentina
Palabras clave:mesopause region temperature trends
Año:2013
Volumen:118
Número:8
Página de inicio:5223
Página de fin:5229
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jgra.50461
Título revista:Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
Título revista abreviado:J. Geophys. Res. A. Space Phys.
ISSN:21699402
Registro:https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_21699402_v118_n8_p5223_Scheer

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Citas:

---------- APA ----------
Scheer, J. & Reisin, E.R. (2013) . Simpson's paradox in trend analysis: An example from El Leoncito airglow data. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, 118(8), 5223-5229.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jgra.50461
---------- CHICAGO ----------
Scheer, J., Reisin, E.R. "Simpson's paradox in trend analysis: An example from El Leoncito airglow data" . Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics 118, no. 8 (2013) : 5223-5229.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jgra.50461
---------- MLA ----------
Scheer, J., Reisin, E.R. "Simpson's paradox in trend analysis: An example from El Leoncito airglow data" . Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, vol. 118, no. 8, 2013, pp. 5223-5229.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jgra.50461
---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Scheer, J., Reisin, E.R. Simpson's paradox in trend analysis: An example from El Leoncito airglow data. J. Geophys. Res. A. Space Phys. 2013;118(8):5223-5229.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jgra.50461