Estamos trabajando para incorporar este artículo al repositorio
Consulte el artículo en la página del editor
Consulte la política de Acceso Abierto del editor


The ENSO phenomenon is one of the key factors that influence the interannual variability of precipitation over Southern South America. The aim of this study is to identify the regional response of precipitation to El Niño/La Niña events, with emphasis in drought conditions. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) was used to characterize precipitation variabilities through the 1961-2008 period for time scales of 3 (SPI3) and 12 (SPI12) months. A regionalization based on rotated principal component analysis allowed to identify seven coherent regions for each of the time scales considered. In order to identify the regional influence of El Niño and La Niña events on the SPI time series, we calculated the mean SPI values for the El Niño and La Niña years and assessed its significance through bootstrap analysis. We found coherent and significant SPI responses to ENSO phases in most of the seven regions considered, mainly for the SPI12 time series. The precipitation response to La Niña events is characterized with regional deficits, identified with negative values of the SPI during the end of La Niña year and the year after. During El Niño events the precipitation response is reversed and more intense/consistent than in the case of La Niña events. This signal has some regional differences regarding its magnitude and timing, and the quantification of these features, together with the assessment of the SST composites during drought conditions provided critical baseline information for the agricultural and water resources sectors. © 2016 Author(s).


Documento: Artículo
Título:Precipitation response to El Niño/La Niña events in Southern South America - Emphasis in regional drought occurrences
Autor:Penalba, O.C.; Rivera, J.A.
Filiación:Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Los Océanos (DCAO/FCEN), Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, C1428EGA, Argentina
Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA/CONICET), Mendoza, 5500, Argentina
Instituto Franco-Argentino Para El Estudio Del Clima y Sus Impactos (UMI IFAECI/CNRS), Buenos Aires, C1428EGA, Argentina
Palabras clave:annual variation; climate modeling; drought; El Nino; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; La Nina; precipitation (climatology); principal component analysis; regional climate; South America
Página de inicio:1
Página de fin:14
Título revista:Advances in Geosciences
Título revista abreviado:Adv. Geosci.


  • Aceituno, P., On the functioning of the Southern Oscillation in the South American sector-Part I: Surface climate (1988) Mon. Weather Rev., 116, pp. 505-524
  • Alexandersson, H., A homogeneity test applied to precipitation data (1986) J. Climatol., 6, pp. 661-675
  • Anderson, T.W., Darling, D.A., Asymptotic theory of certain "Goodness of Fit" criteria based on stochastic processes (1952) Ann. Math. Stat., 23, pp. 193-212
  • Antico, A., Torres, M.E., Diaz, H.F., Contributions of different time scales to extreme Paraná floods (2015) Clim. Dynam., , online first
  • Ashok, K., Behera, S.K., Rao, S.A., Weng, H., Yamagata, T., El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection (2007) J. Geophys. Res., 112, p. C11007
  • Barros, V.R., Doyle, M.E., Camilloni, I.A., Precipitation trends in southeastern South America: Relationship with ENSO phases and with low-level circulation (2008) Theor. Appl. Climatol., 93, pp. 19-33
  • Berri, G.J., Bertossa, G.I., The influence of the Tropical and Subtropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans on precipitation variability over Southern Central South America on seasonal time scales (2004) Int. J. Climatol., 24, pp. 415-435
  • Boulanger, J.-P., Leloup, J., Penalba, O., Rusticucci, M., Lafon, F., Vargas, W., Low-frequency modes of observed precipitation variability over the la Plata Basin (2005) Clim. Dynam., 24, pp. 393-413
  • Camilloni, I., Barros, V., Extreme discharge events in the Paraná River and their climate forcing (2003) J. Hydrology, 278, pp. 94-106
  • Cattell, R.B., The screen test for the number of factors (1966) J. Multiv. Behav. Res., 1, pp. 245-276
  • Chamorro, L., Los principales usos y problemas de los recursos hídricos (2006) El Cambio climático en la cuenca del Plata, Buenos Aires, pp. 111-123. , edited by: Barros, V., Clarke, R., and Silva Dias, P CIMA/CONICET
  • Chen, J.L., Wilson, C.R., Tapley, B.D., Longuevergne, L., Yang, Z.L., Scanlon, B.R., Recent la Plata basin drought conditions observed by satellite gravimetry (2010) J. Geophys. Res., 115, p. D22108
  • Chiew, F.H.S., Piechota, T.C., Dracup, J.A., McMahon, T.A., El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Australian rainfall, streamflow and drought: Links and potential for forecasting (1998) J. Hydrology, 204, pp. 138-149
  • Compagnucci, R.H., Vargas, W.M., Interannual variability of Cuyo rivers streamflow in Argentinean Andean Mountains and ENSO events (1998) Int. J. Climatol., 18, pp. 1593-1609
  • Comrie, A.C., Glenn, E.C., Principal components-based regionalization of precipitation regimes across the southwest United States and northern Mexico, with an application to monsoon precipitation variability (1998) Clim. Res., 10, pp. 201-215
  • Dracup, J.A., Kahya, E., The relationships between U.S. Streamflow and la Niña events (1994) Water Resour. Res., 30, pp. 2133-2141
  • Edwards, D.C., McKee, T.B., Characteristics of 20th century drought in the United States at multiple time scales, Atmospheric Science Paper No. 634 (1997) Climatology Report No. 97-2, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, , Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO
  • Efron, B., Tibshirani, R.J., (1993) An Introduction to the Bootstrap, , Chapman & Hall, International Thomson Publication, New York, USA
  • González, M.H., Vera, C.S., On the interannual winter rainfall variability in Southern Andes (2010) Int. J. Climatol., 30, pp. 643-657
  • Grimm, A.M., Ambrizzi, T., Teleconnections into South America from the tropics and extratropics on interannual to intraseasonal timescales (2009) Past Climate Variability in South America and Surrounding Regions, 14, pp. 159-191. , Springer edited by: Vimeux, F. Dev. Paleoenviron. Res
  • Grimm, A.M., Barros, V.R., Doyle, M.E., Climate variability in Southern South America associated with El Niño and la Niña events (2000) J. Climate, 13, pp. 35-58
  • Guttman, N.B., Accepting the standardized precipitation index: A calculation algorithm (1999) J. Am. Water Resour. As., 35, pp. 311-322
  • Hayes, M.J., Svoboda, M.D., Wilhite, D.A., Vanyarkho, O.V., Monitoring the 1996 drought using the standardized precipitation index (1999) B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 80, pp. 429-438
  • Hayes, M., Svoboda, M., Wall, N., Widhalm, M., The Lincoln Declaration on Drought Indices: Universal meteorological drought index recommended (2011) B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 92, pp. 485-488
  • Hisdal, H., Tallaksen, L.M., Estimation of regional meteorological and hydrological drought characteristics: A case study for Denmark (2003) J. Hydrol., 281, pp. 230-247
  • Kaiser, H.F., The Varimax criterion for analytic rotation in factor analysis (1958) Psychometrika, 23, pp. 187-200
  • Karabork, M.C., Kahya, E., The teleconnections between the extreme phases of the Southern Oscillation and precipitation patterns over Turkey (2003) Int. J. Climatol., 23, pp. 1607-1625
  • Kirtman, B., Anderson, D., Brunet, G., Kang, I.-S., Scaife, A.A., Smith, D., Prediction from weeks to decades (2013) Climate Science for Serving Society-Research, Modeling and Prediction Priorities, pp. 205-235. , edited by: Asrar, G. R. and Hurrell, J. W. Springer, New York, USA
  • Krepper, C.M., Zucarelli, V., Climatology of water excess and shortages in the la plata basin (2012) Theor. Appl. Climatol., 102, pp. 13-27
  • Lloyd-Hughes, B., Saunders, M.A., A drought climatology for Europe (2002) Int. J. Climatol., 22, pp. 1571-1592
  • Masiokas, M., Villalba, R., Luckman, B., Le Quesne, C., Aravena, J.C., Snowpack variations in the Central Andes of Argentina and Chile, 1951-2005: Large-scale atmospheric influences and implications for water resources in the region (2006) J. Climate, 19, pp. 6334-6352
  • McKee, T.B., Doesken, N.J., Kleist, J., The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales, in: Proceedings of the Eight Conference on Applied Climatology, Anaheim, CA (1993) American Meteorological Society, pp. 179-184
  • Minetti, J.L., Vargas, W.M., Poblete, A.G., Acuña, L.R., Casagrande, G., Non-linear trends and low frequency oscillations in annual precipitation over Argentina and Chile 1931-1999 (2003) Atmósfera, 16, pp. 119-135
  • Moreira, E.E., Coelho, C.A., Paulo, A.A., Pereira, L.S., Mexia, J.T., SPI-based drought category prediction using loglinear models (2008) J. Hydrol., 354, pp. 116-130
  • Mudelsee, M., The bootstrap in climate risk analysis (2011) Extremis-Disruptive Events and Trends in Climate and Hydrology, pp. 44-58. , edited by: Kropp, J. and Schellnhuber, H.-J
  • Paruelo, J.M., Beltrán, A., Jobbágy, E., Sala, O.E., Golluscio, R.A., The climate of Patagonia: General patterns and controls on biotic processes (1998) Ecología Austral., 8, pp. 85-101
  • Pasquini, A.I., Lecomte, K.L., Piovano, E.L., Depetris, P.J., Recent rainfall and runoff variability in central Argentina (2006) Quat. Int., 158, pp. 127-139
  • Penalba, O.C., Rivera, J.A., Uso de la distribución de probabilidades gamma para la representación de la precipitación mensual en el Sudeste de Sudamérica, Cambios espacio-temporales en sus parámetros (2012) Proceedings of the XI CONGREMET, , Mendoza, Argentina, 28 May-1 June
  • Penalba, O.C., Rivera, J.A., Comparación de seis índices para el monitoreo de sequías meteorológicas en el sur de Sudamérica (2015) Meteorológica, 40, pp. 33-57
  • Penalba, O.C., Rivera, J.A., Regional aspects of future precipitation and meteorological drought characteristics over Southern South America projected by a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble (2016) Int. J. Climatol., 36, pp. 974-986
  • Penalba, O.C., Beltran, A., Messina, C., Monthly rainfall in central-eastern Argentina and ENSO: A comparative study of rainfall forecast methodologies (2005) Rev. Bras. Agrometeorologia, 13, pp. 49-61
  • Penalba, O.C., Pántano, V.C., Spescha, L.B., Murphy, G.M., ENSO impact on dry sequences during different phenological periods in the east-northeast of Argentina (2014) III International Conference on ENSO: Bridging the Gaps between Global ENSO Science and Regional Processes, Extremes and Impacts, , Guayaquil, Ecuador, 12-14 November
  • Penalba, O.C., Rivera, J.A., Pántano, V.C., The CLARIS LPB database: Constructing a long-term daily hydro-meteorological dataset for la Plata Basin, Southern South America (2014) Geosci. Data J., 1, pp. 20-29
  • Penalba, O.C., Rivera, J.A., Pántano, V.C., Bettolli, M.L., Extreme rainfall and hydric condition in Southern la Plata Basin and the associated atmospheric circulation (2016) Clim. Res., , online first
  • Penland, C., Sun, D.-Z., Capotondi, A., Vimont, D.J., A brief introduction of El Niño and la Niña (2010) Climate Dynamics: Why Does Climate Vary?, 189, pp. 53-64. , edited by: Sun, D.-Z. and Bryan, F., Geophys. Monogr. Ser., American Geophysical Union, Washington, USA
  • Piechota, T.C., Dracup, J.A., Drought and regional hydrologic variation in the United States: Associations with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (1996) Water Resour. Res., 32, pp. 1359-1373
  • Phillips, I.D., Denning, H., Winter daily precipitation variability over the South West Peninsula of England (2007) Theor. Appl. Climatol., 87, pp. 103-122
  • Podestá, G.P., Messina, C.D., Grondona, M.O., Magrin, G.O., Associations between grain crop yields in central-eastern Argentina and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (1999) J. Appl. Meteorol., 38, pp. 1488-1498
  • Prieto, M.R., Herrera, R., Dussel, P., Historical Evidences of the Mendoza River Streamflow Fluctuations and their Relationship with ENSO (1999) Holocene, 9, pp. 473-471
  • Richman, M., Rotation of principal components (1986) J. Climatol., 6, pp. 293-335
  • Rivera, J.A., Penalba, O.C., Trends and spatial patterns of drought affected area in Southern South America (2014) Climate, 2, pp. 264-278
  • Rivera, J.A., Araneo, D.C., Penalba, O.C., Evaluación del período de crisis hídrica 2010-2014 en la región de Cuyo, XII Congreso Argentino de Meteorología, Mar del Plata (2015) Argentina, pp. 26-29. , May
  • Ropelewski, C.F., Halpert, M.S., North American precipitation and temperature patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (1986) Mon.Weather Rev., 114, pp. 2352-2362
  • Ropelewski, C.F., Halpert, M.S., Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (1987) Mon. Weather Rev., 115, pp. 1606-1626
  • Russián, G.F., Agosta, E.A., Compagnucci, R.H., Variabilidad interanual a interdecádica de la precipitación en Patagonia Norte (2010) Geoacta, 35, pp. 27-43
  • Schonher, T., Nicholson, S.E., The relationship between California rainfall and ENSO events (1989) J. Climate, 2, pp. 1258-1269
  • Seiler, R.A., Hayes, M., Bressan, L., Using the standardized precipitation index for flood risk monitoring (2002) Int. J. Climatol., 22, pp. 1365-1376
  • Sienz, F., Bordi, I., Fraedrich, K., Schneidereit, A., Extreme dry and wet events in Iceland: Observations, simulations and scenarios (2007) Meteorol. Z., 16, pp. 9-16
  • Silvestri, G.E., Vera, C.S., Antarctic Oscillation signal on precipitation anomalies over southeastern South America (2003) Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, p. 2115
  • Smith, T.M., Reynolds, R.W., Peterson, T.C., Lawrimore, J., Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006) (2008) J. Climate, 21, pp. 2283-2296
  • Spescha, L., Forte Lay, J., Scarpati, O., Hurtado, R., Los excesos de agua edáfica y su relación con el ENSO en la región Pampeana (2004) Rev. Facultad de Agronomía, 24, pp. 161-167
  • Taschetto, A.S., Wainer, I., The impact of the subtropical South Atlantic SST on South American precipitation (2008) Ann. Geophys., 26, pp. 3457-3476
  • Trenberth, K.E., Signal versus Noise in the Southern Oscillation (1984) Mon. Weather Rev., 112, pp. 326-332
  • Trenberth, K.E., The definition of El Niño (1997) B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78, pp. 2771-2777
  • Trenberth, K.E., Stepaniak, D.P., Indices of El Niño evolution (2001) J. Climate, 14, pp. 1697-1701
  • Vicente-Serrano, S.M., El Niño and la Niña influence on droughts at different timescales in the Iberian Peninsula (2005) Water Resour. Res., 41, p. W12415
  • Vicente-Serrano, S.M., López-Moreno, J.I., Gimeno, L., Nieto, R., Morán-Tejada, E., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Beguería, S., Azorin-Molina, C., A multiscalar global evaluation of the impact of ENSO on droughts (2011) J. Geophys. Res., 116, p. D20109
  • Wolter, K., Timlin, M.S., Monitoring ENSO in COADS with a seasonally adjusted principal component index, Proceedings of the 17th Climate Diagnostics Workshop, Norman, Oklahoma, NOAA/NMC/CAC, NSSL, Oklahoma Clim (1993) Survey, CIMMS and the School of Meteor. Univ. of Oklahoma, pp. 52-57


---------- APA ----------
Penalba, O.C. & Rivera, J.A. (2016) . Precipitation response to El Niño/La Niña events in Southern South America - Emphasis in regional drought occurrences. Advances in Geosciences, 42, 1-14.
---------- CHICAGO ----------
Penalba, O.C., Rivera, J.A. "Precipitation response to El Niño/La Niña events in Southern South America - Emphasis in regional drought occurrences" . Advances in Geosciences 42 (2016) : 1-14.
---------- MLA ----------
Penalba, O.C., Rivera, J.A. "Precipitation response to El Niño/La Niña events in Southern South America - Emphasis in regional drought occurrences" . Advances in Geosciences, vol. 42, 2016, pp. 1-14.
---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Penalba, O.C., Rivera, J.A. Precipitation response to El Niño/La Niña events in Southern South America - Emphasis in regional drought occurrences. Adv. Geosci. 2016;42:1-14.