Artículo
Degallier, N.; Favier, C.; Boulanger, J.-P.; Menkes, C.E.; Oliveira, C. "A new method to estimate the basic reproductive number of diseases (R 0): An application to the study of dengue epidemics in the Federal District of Brazil " (2005) Environnement, Risques et Sante. 4(2):131-135
Consulte la política de Acceso Abierto del editor
Abstract:
Dengue epidemics in Brazil generally begin with a silent phase that lasts for days or weeks, followed by a phase of exponential increase, and then a more or less stable phase before decrease begins. The total number of cases depends on historic, climatic, and ecological factors. Three epidemics in the Federal District (Brazil) were studied to estimate the basic reproductive number R0 and the total number of cases. A new method is proposed, based on the relation between the number of new cases daily and the cumulative number of cases. R 0 is then estimated from the initial slope of the curve describing this relation. Evaluation of the total number of cases requires a more precise method and should take into account some heterogeneity in the rates of contact between people and mosquitoes.
Registro:
| Documento: | Artículo |
| Título: | A new method to estimate the basic reproductive number of diseases (R 0): An application to the study of dengue epidemics in the Federal District of Brazil |
| Autor: | Degallier, N.; Favier, C.; Boulanger, J.-P.; Menkes, C.E.; Oliveira, C. |
| Filiación: | Inst. de Rech. pour le Developpement, U. Mixte de Rech. 182/U. Rech. 178, Lab. d'Oceanogr./de Dynam. du Climat, 4, place Jussieu, 75252 Paris Cedex 05, France Depto. de Cie. de la Atmosf./Oceanos, FCEN-UBA, Pabellon II, Buenos Aires, Argentina DIVAL/SES-DF, Estrada do Contorno do Bosque, SAIN 70620-000 Brasília, DF, Brazil |
| Palabras clave: | Biological; Brazil; Dengue; Disease outbreaks; Epidemiology; Insect vectors; Models; Brazil; conference paper; dengue; disease carrier; disease transmission; epidemic; human; model; mosquito; nonhuman |
| Año: | 2005 |
| Volumen: | 4 |
| Número: | 2 |
| Página de inicio: | 131 |
| Página de fin: | 135 |
| Título revista: | Environnement, Risques et Sante |
| Título revista abreviado: | Envir. Risques Sante |
| ISSN: | 16350421 |
| CODEN: | ERSNA |
| Registro: | https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_16350421_v4_n2_p131_Degallier |
Referencias:
- Pedro, A., O dengueem Nictheroy (1923) Brazil-Medico, 1, pp. 173-177
- Degallier, N., Travassos Da Rosa, A.P.A., Vasconcelos, P.F.D.C., La cengue et ses vecteurs au Brésil (1996) Bull Soc Pathol Exot, 89, pp. 128-136
- Degallier, N., Hervé, J.P., Travassos Da Rosa, A.P.A., Entomological studies on dengue fever vectors in Brazil: The epidemics of Boa Vista, Roraima, 1982, Nictheroy, Rio de Janeiro, 1986, and Ceara State, 1986, 1994 (1998) An Overview of Arbovirology in Brazil and Neighbouring Countries, pp. 261-71. , Travassos Da Rosa APA, Vasconcelos PF da C, Travassos da Rosa JFS, eds. Belem (Pará, Brésil): Instituto Evandro Chagas
- Dietz, K., The estimation of the basic reproduction number for infectious diseases (1993) Stat Met Med Res, 2, pp. 23-41
- Brauer, F., Castillo-Chavez, C., Basic models in epidemiology (1994) Ecological Time Series, pp. 410-447. , Steele J, Powell T, eds. New York: Raven Press
- Bruce-Chwatt, L.J., Mathematical models in the epidemiology and control of malaria (1976) Trop Geogr Med, 28, pp. 1-7
- Dietz, K., Transmission and control of arbovirus diseases (1974) Proceedings of SIMS Conference on Epidemiology, July 8-12, 1974, pp. 104-121. , Ludvig D, Cooke KL, eds. Alta (Utah, États-Unis)
- Favier, C., (2003) Hommes, Savanes, Forêts. Modélisation de Systèmes Dynamiques Liant l'Homme à Son Environnement, , Thèse de doctorat, université Paris XI Orsay, xx + 220 p
- Koopman, J.S., Prevots, D.R., Marin, M.A.V., Determinants and predictors of dengue infection in Mexico (1991) Am J Epidemiol, 133, pp. 1168-1178
- Marques, C.C.D.A., Forattini, O.P., Massad, E., The basic reproduction number for dengue fever in São Paulo state, Brazil, 1990-1991 epidemic (1994) Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg, 88, pp. 58-59
- Massed, E., Burattini, M.N., Coutinho, F.A.B., Lopez, L.F., Dengue and the risk of urban yellow fever reintroduction in São Paulo State, Brazil (2003) Rev Saude Publica, 37, pp. 477-484
- Anderson, R.M., May, R.M., (1999) Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control, , Bristol (Avon, Royaume-Uni): Oxford University Press; viii + 757 p
- Zhou, C., Van, C., Severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic in Asia (2003) Emerg Inf Dis, 9, pp. 1608-1610
Citas:
---------- APA ----------
Degallier, N., Favier, C., Boulanger, J.-P., Menkes, C.E. & Oliveira, C. (2005) . A new method to estimate the basic reproductive number of diseases (R 0): An application to the study of dengue epidemics in the Federal District of Brazil . Environnement, Risques et Sante, 4(2), 131-135.Recuperado de https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_16350421_v4_n2_p131_Degallier [ ]
---------- CHICAGO ----------
Degallier, N., Favier, C., Boulanger, J.-P., Menkes, C.E., Oliveira, C. "A new method to estimate the basic reproductive number of diseases (R 0): An application to the study of dengue epidemics in the Federal District of Brazil " . Environnement, Risques et Sante 4, no. 2 (2005) : 131-135.Recuperado de https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_16350421_v4_n2_p131_Degallier [ ]
---------- MLA ----------
Degallier, N., Favier, C., Boulanger, J.-P., Menkes, C.E., Oliveira, C. "A new method to estimate the basic reproductive number of diseases (R 0): An application to the study of dengue epidemics in the Federal District of Brazil " . Environnement, Risques et Sante, vol. 4, no. 2, 2005, pp. 131-135.Recuperado de https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_16350421_v4_n2_p131_Degallier [ ]
---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Degallier, N., Favier, C., Boulanger, J.-P., Menkes, C.E., Oliveira, C. A new method to estimate the basic reproductive number of diseases (R 0): An application to the study of dengue epidemics in the Federal District of Brazil . Envir. Risques Sante. 2005;4(2):131-135.Available from: https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_16350421_v4_n2_p131_Degallier [ ]
