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Abstract:

Cyclogenesis and long-fetched winds along the southeastern coast of South America may lead to floods in populated areas, as the Buenos Aires Province, with important economic and social impacts. A numerical model (SMARA) has already been implemented in the region to forecast storm surges. The propagation time of the surge in such extensive and shallow area allows the detection of anomalies based on observations from several hours up to the order of a day prior to the event. Here, we investigate the impact and potential benefit of storm surge level data assimilation into the SMARA model, with the objective of improving the forecast. In the experiments, the surface wind stress from an ensemble prediction system drives a storm surge model ensemble, based on the operational 2-D depth-averaged SMARA model. A 4-D Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (4D-LETKF) initializes the ensemble in a 6-h cycle, assimilating the very few tide gauge observations available along the northern coast and satellite altimeter data. The sparse coverage of the altimeters is a challenge to data assimilation; however, the 4D-LETKF evolving covariance of the ensemble perturbations provides realistic cross-track analysis increments. Improvements on the forecast ensemble mean show the potential of an effective use of the sparse satellite altimeter and tidal gauges observations in the data assimilation prototype. Furthermore, the effects of the localization scale and of the observational errors of coastal altimetry and tidal gauges in the data assimilation approach are assessed. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Registro:

Documento: Artículo
Título:An investigation of ensemble-based assimilation of satellite altimetry and tide gauge data in storm surge prediction
Autor:Etala, P.; Saraceno, M.; Echevarría, P.
Filiación:Servicio de Hidrografía Naval, Av. Montes de Oca 2124, City of Buenos Aires, C1270ABV, Argentina
Centro de Inv. del Mar y la Atmosfera (CIMA)/UBA/FCEN-CONICET, UMI3351-IFAECI/CNRS-CONICET-UBA, Ciudad Universitaria, Pab.II 2 piso, City of Buenos Aires, (1428), Argentina
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, 25 de mayo 658 4 piso, City of Buenos Aires, C1002ABN, Argentina
Palabras clave:Data assimilation; Ensemble Kalman filter; Storm surge prediction; Aneroid altimeters; Digital storage; Floods; Forecasting; Gages; Kalman filters; Meteorological instruments; Radio altimeters; Satellites; Storms; Tide gages; Data assimilation; Ensemble Kalman Filter; Ensemble perturbation; Ensemble prediction systems; Observational errors; Satellite altimeter; Satellite altimeter data; Storm surges; Weather forecasting
Año:2015
Volumen:65
Número:3
Página de inicio:435
Página de fin:447
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10236-015-0808-z
Título revista:Ocean Dynamics
Título revista abreviado:Ocean Dyn.
ISSN:16167341
Registro:https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_16167341_v65_n3_p435_Etala

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Citas:

---------- APA ----------
Etala, P., Saraceno, M. & Echevarría, P. (2015) . An investigation of ensemble-based assimilation of satellite altimetry and tide gauge data in storm surge prediction. Ocean Dynamics, 65(3), 435-447.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10236-015-0808-z
---------- CHICAGO ----------
Etala, P., Saraceno, M., Echevarría, P. "An investigation of ensemble-based assimilation of satellite altimetry and tide gauge data in storm surge prediction" . Ocean Dynamics 65, no. 3 (2015) : 435-447.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10236-015-0808-z
---------- MLA ----------
Etala, P., Saraceno, M., Echevarría, P. "An investigation of ensemble-based assimilation of satellite altimetry and tide gauge data in storm surge prediction" . Ocean Dynamics, vol. 65, no. 3, 2015, pp. 435-447.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10236-015-0808-z
---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Etala, P., Saraceno, M., Echevarría, P. An investigation of ensemble-based assimilation of satellite altimetry and tide gauge data in storm surge prediction. Ocean Dyn. 2015;65(3):435-447.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10236-015-0808-z