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Abstract:

There is an increasing demand for future climate scenarios, particularly for impact studies. In this study, simulation outputs taken from a set of three regional climate models (RCMs) are used to force a hydrologic model to derive future streamflow scenarios for La Plata Basin. As RCMs have biases in their mean precipitation and temperature fields, a statistical scheme is previously used to remove the systematic part of the bias. Future hydrologic scenarios were derived considering two future periods: 2021-2040 (near future) and 2071-2090 (far future). In terms of climate projections, RCMs predict warmer conditions in almost the whole basin, while precipitation variations are not uniform in sign across the region but overall tend to be positive over the southern part of the basin. Nevertheless, a trend towards a gradual increase in streamflow was found for the majority of the rivers in the basin particularly for the near future followed by less uniform variations towards the end of the present century. Future changes in the largest monthly streamflow are similar to those in the mean values, with also some differences among RCMs and on the period and sub-basin considered. © 2014 © 2014 International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research.

Registro:

Documento: Artículo
Título:Development of statistically unbiased twenty-first century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin
Autor:Saurral, R.I.; Montroull, N.B.; Camilloni, I.A.
Filiación:Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos (DCAO, FCEN-UBA), Buenos Aires, Argentina
Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA, UBA-CONICET), UMI-IFAECI/CNRS, Int. Güiraldes 2160, Ciudad Univ., Pab. 2 (C1428EGA), Buenos Aires, Argentina
Palabras clave:future hydrology scenarios; impact studies; La Plata Basin; regional climate models; climate modeling; future prospect; hydrological modeling; regional climate; streamflow; twenty first century; La Plata Basin
Año:2013
Volumen:11
Número:4
Página de inicio:329
Página de fin:343
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2014.885440
Título revista:International Journal of River Basin Management
Título revista abreviado:Int. J. River Basin Manage.
ISSN:15715124
Registro:https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_15715124_v11_n4_p329_Saurral

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Citas:

---------- APA ----------
Saurral, R.I., Montroull, N.B. & Camilloni, I.A. (2013) . Development of statistically unbiased twenty-first century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin. International Journal of River Basin Management, 11(4), 329-343.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2014.885440
---------- CHICAGO ----------
Saurral, R.I., Montroull, N.B., Camilloni, I.A. "Development of statistically unbiased twenty-first century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin" . International Journal of River Basin Management 11, no. 4 (2013) : 329-343.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2014.885440
---------- MLA ----------
Saurral, R.I., Montroull, N.B., Camilloni, I.A. "Development of statistically unbiased twenty-first century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin" . International Journal of River Basin Management, vol. 11, no. 4, 2013, pp. 329-343.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2014.885440
---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Saurral, R.I., Montroull, N.B., Camilloni, I.A. Development of statistically unbiased twenty-first century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin. Int. J. River Basin Manage. 2013;11(4):329-343.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2014.885440