Estamos trabajando para incorporar este artículo al repositorio
Consulte el artículo en la página del editor
Consulte la política de Acceso Abierto del editor


Background: Oligoryzomys longicaudatus (colilargo) is the rodent responsible for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in Argentine Patagonia. In past decades (1967-1998), trends of precipitation reduction and surface air temperature increase have been observed in western Patagonia. We explore how the potential distribution of the hantavirus reservoir would change under different climate change scenarios based on the observed trends. Methods: Four scenarios of potential climate change were constructed using temperature and precipitation changes observed in Argentine Patagonia between 1967 and 1998: Scenario 1 assumed no change in precipitation but a temperature trend as observed; scenario 2 assumed no changes in temperature but a precipitation trend as observed; Scenario 3 included changes in both temperature and precipitation trends as observed; Scenario 4 assumed changes in both temperature and precipitation trends as observed but doubled. We used a validated spatial distribution model of O. longicaudatus as a function of temperature and precipitation. From the model probability of the rodent presence was calculated for each scenario. Results: If changes in precipitation follow previous trends, the probability of the colilargo presence would fall in the HPS transmission zone of northern Patagonia. If temperature and precipitation trends remain at current levels for 60 years or double in the future 30 years, the probability of the rodent presence and the associated total area of potential distribution would diminish throughout Patagonia; the areas of potential distribution for colilargos would shift eastwards. These results suggest that future changes in Patagonia climate may lower transmission risk through a reduction in the potential distribution of the rodent reservoir. Conclusion: According to our model the rates of temperature and precipitation changes observed between 1967 and 1998 may produce significant changes in the rodent distribution in an equivalent period of time only in certain areas. Given that changes maintain for 60 years or double in 30 years, the hantavirus reservoir Oligoryzomys longicaudatus may contract its distribution in Argentine Patagonia extensively. © 2009 Carbajo et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.


Documento: Artículo
Título:Hantavirus reservoir oligoryzomys longicaudatus spatial distribution sensitivity to climate change scenarios in Argentine Patagonia
Autor:Carbajo, A.E.; Vera, C.; González, P.L.M.
Filiación:Unidad de Ecología de Reservorios y Vectores de Parásitos, Depto. Ecología, Genética y Evolución, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), Depto. Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Palabras clave:air temperature; climate change; disease transmission; environmental effect; modeling; precipitation (climatology); probability; rodent; sensitivity analysis; spatial distribution; surface temperature; trend analysis; virus; Patagonia; South America; Hantavirus; Oligoryzomys longicaudatus; Rodentia; animal; Argentina; article; comparative study; demography; disease transmission; environmental monitoring; greenhouse effect; Hantavirus; Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome; methodology; rodent; Sigmodontinae; statistical model; Animals; Argentina; Demography; Environmental Monitoring; Greenhouse Effect; Hantavirus; Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome; Models, Statistical; Rodentia; Sigmodontinae
Título revista:International Journal of Health Geographics
Título revista abreviado:Int. J. Health Geogr.


  • Palma, R.E., Rivera-Milla, E., Salazar-Bravo, J., Torres-Pérez, F., Pardiñas, U.F.J., Marquet, P.A., Spotorno, A.E., Yates, T.L., Phylogeography of Oligoryzomys longicaudatus (Rodentia: Sigmodontinae) in temperate South America (2005) J Mammal, 86, pp. 191-200. , 10.1644/1545-1542(2005)086<0191:POOLRS>2.0.CO;2
  • López, N., Padula, P.J., Rossi, C., Lázaro, M.E., Franze-Fernandez, M.T., Genetic identification of a new hantavirus causing severe Pulmonay Syndrome in Argentina (1996) Virology, 220, pp. 223-226. , 10.1006/viro.1996.0305 8659118
  • Toro, J., Vega, J.D., Khan, A.S., Mills, J.N., Padula, P., Terry, W., Yadón, Z., Pavletic, C., An Outbreak of Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome, Chile, 1997 (1998) Emerg Infect Dis, 4, pp. 687-694. , 2640255 9866751
  • Yahnke, C.J., Meserve, P.L., Ksiazek, T.G., Mills, J.N., Patterns of infection with Laguna Negra virus in wild populations of Calomys laucha in the central Paraguayan chaco (2001) Am J Trop Med Hyg, 65 (6), pp. 768-776. , 11791973
  • Puerta, H., Cantillo, C., Mills, J., Hjelle, B., Salazar-Bravo, J., Mattar, S., Hantavirus del nuevo mundo. Ecología y epidemiología de un virus emergente en Latinoamérica (2006) Medicina Buenos Aire, 66, pp. 343-356. , S0025-76802006000400013&lng=es&nrm=iso&tlng=en
  • Kosoy, M.Y., Slonova, R.A., Mills, J.N., Mandel, E., Childs, J.E., Community structure and prevalence of hantavirus infection in rodents: A geographic division of the enzootic area in far eastern Russia (1997) J Vector Ecol, 22, pp. 52-63. , 9221739
  • Githeko, A., Lindsay, S., Confalonieri, U., Patz, J., Climate change and vector-borne diseases: A regional analysis (2000) B World Health Organ, 78, pp. 1136-1147
  • Hales, S., Wet, Nd., Maindonald, J., Woodward, A., Potential effect of population and climate change on global distribution of dengue fever: An empirical model (2002) Lancet, 360, pp. 830-834. , 10.1016/S0140-6736(02)09964-6 12243917
  • Hopp, M., Foley, J., Global-scale relationships between climate and the dengue fever vector, Aedes aegypti (2001) Climatic Change, 48, pp. 441-463. , 10.1023/A:1010717502442
  • Martens, W., Jetten, T., Focks, D., Sensitivity of malaria, schistosomiasis and dengue to global warming (1997) Climatic Change, 35, pp. 145-156. , 10.1023/A:1005365413932
  • Peterson, A.T., Shaw, J., Lutzomyia vectors for cutaneous leishmaniasis in Southern Brazil: Ecological niche models, predicted geographic distributions, and climate change effects (2003) Int J Parasitol, 33, pp. 919-931. , 10.1016/S0020-7519(03)00094-8 12906876
  • Murua, R., Gonzalez, L.A., Lima, M., Population dynamics of rice rats (a Hantavirus reservoir) in southern Chile: Feedback structure and non-linear effects of climatic oscillations (2003) Oikos, 102, pp. 137-145. , 10.1034/j.1600-0706.2003.12226.x
  • Murua, R., Briones, M., Abundance of the sigmodontine mouse Oligoryzomys longicaudatus and patterns of tree seeding in the Chilean temperate forest (2005) Mamm Biol
  • Aagesen, D., Crisis and conservation at the end of the world: Sheep ranching in Argentine Patagonia (2000) Environ Conserv, 27, pp. 208-215. , 10.1017/S0376892900000229
  • González, M.E., Veblen, T.T., Sibold, J.S., Fire history of Araucaria-Nothofagus forests in Villarrica National Park, Chile (2005) J Biogeography, 32, pp. 1187-1202. , 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2005.01262.x
  • Kitzberger, T., Veblen, T.T., Fire-induced changes in northern Patagonian landscapes (1999) Landscape Ecol, 14, pp. 1-15. , 10.1023/A:1008069712826
  • Tercero-Bucardo, N., Kitzberger, T., Veblen, T.T., Raffaele, E., A field experiment on climatic and herbivore impacts on post-fire tree regeneration in north-western Patagonia (2007) J Ecol, 95, pp. 771-779. , 10.1111/j.1365-2745.2007.01249.x
  • Jaksic, F., Lima, M., Myths and facts on ratadas: Bamboo blooms, rainfall peaks and rodent outbreaks in South America (2003) Austral Ecol, 28, pp. 237-251. , 10.1046/j.1442-9993.2003.01271.x
  • Engelthaler, D.M., Mosley, D.G., Cheek, J.E., Levy, C.E., Komatsu, K.K., Ettestad, P., Davis, T., Frampton, J.W., Climatic and Environmental Patterns Associated with Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome, Four Corners Region, United States (1999) Emerg Infect Dis, 5, pp. 87-94. , 2627709 10081675
  • Carbajo, A.E., Pardiñas, U.F.J., Spatial distribution model of the Hantavirus reservoir, the long-tailed colilargo (Oligoryzomys longicaudatus), in Argentina (2007) J Mammal, 88, pp. 1555-1568. , 10.1644/06-MAMM-A-183R1.1
  • Porcasi, X., Calderón, G., Lamfri, M., Scavuzzo, M., Sabattini, M.S., Polop, J.J., Predictive distribution maps of rodent reservoir species of zoonoses in Southern America (2005) Mastozool Neotrop, 12, pp. 199-216. ,
  • Anderson, R.P., Lew, D., Peterson, A.T., Evaluating predictive models of species' distributions: Criteria for selecting optimal models (2003) Ecol Model, 162, pp. 211-232. , 10.1016/S0304-3800(02)00349-6
  • Guisan, A., Zimmermann, N.E., Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology (2000) Ecol Model, 135, pp. 147-186. , 10.1016/S0304-3800(00)00354-9
  • Peterson, A.T., Ecologic Niche Modeling and Spatial Patterns of Disease Transmission (2006) Emerg Infect Dis, 12, pp. 1822-1826. , 17326931
  • Haylock, M.R., Peterson, T., Sousa, J.R.Ad., Alves, L.M., Ambrizzi, T., Baez, J., Barbosa, J.I., Bidegain, M., Trends in total and extreme South American rainfall in1960-2000 and links with sea surface temperature (2006) J Climate, 19, pp. 1490-1512. , 10.1175/JCLI3695.1
  • Rusticucci, M., Penalba, O., Interdecadal changes in the precipitation seasonal cycle over Southern South America and their relationship with surface temperature (2000) Cli Res, 16, pp. 1-15. , 10.3354/cr016001
  • Vera, C., Silvestri, G., Liebmann, B., González, P., Climate change scenarios for seasonal precipitation in South America from IPCC-AR4 models (2006) Geophys Res Lett, 33, pp. L13707. , 10.1029/2006GL025759
  • (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, , Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
  • Vera, C.S., Gonzalez, P., Silvestri, G., About uncertainties in WCRP/CMIP3 climate simulations over South America (2009) Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography; February 9-13; Melbourne, Australia, pp. 9-13. ,
  • McCullagh, P., Nelder, J.A., (1989) Generalized Linear Models, , London: Chapman & Hall
  • Crawley, M.J., (1993) GLIM for Ecologists, , Oxford: Blakwell Scientific Publications 1
  • Cabrera, A.L., Willink, A., (1973) Biogeografía De América Latina, , Washington D.C.: OEA
  • León, R.J.C., Bran, D., Collantes, M., Paruelo, J.M., Soriano, A., Grandes unidades de vegetación de la Patagonia extra andina (1998) Ecol Austral, 8, pp. 125-144
  • (2000) Arcview, , E.S.R.I Redlands, California, U.S.A.: Environmental Systems Research Institute 3.2
  • Jones, P.D., New, M., Parker, D.E., Martin, S., Rigor, I.G., Surface air temperature and its variations over the last 150 years (1999) Rev Geophys, 37, pp. 173-199. , 10.1029/1999RG900002
  • Zar, J., (1999) Biostatistical Analysis, , New Jersey: Prentice Hall
  • Cantoni, G., Padula, P.J., Calderon, G., Mills, J., Herrero, E., Sandoval, P., Martinez, V., Larrieu, E., Seasonal variation in prevalence of antibody to hantaviruses in rodents from southern Argentina (2001) Trop Med Int Health, 6, pp. 811-816. , 10.1046/j.1365-3156.2001.00788.x 11679129
  • Murua, R., Gonzalez, L.A., Lima, M., Second-order feedback and climatic effects determine the dynamics of a small rodent population in a temperate forest of South America (2003) Popul Ecol, 45, pp. 19-24. , 10.1007/s10144-003-0135-y
  • Clement, J., Vercauteren, J., Verstraeten, W.W., Ducoffre, G., Barrios, J.M., Vandamme, A.M., Maes, P., Van Ranst, M., Relating increasing hantavirus incidences to the changing climate: The mast connection (2009) Int J Health Geogr, 8, p. 1. , 2642778 19149870 10.1186/1476-072X-8-1
  • González, M.E., Veblen, T.T., Donoso, C., Valeria, L., Tree regeneration responses in a lowland Nothofagus-dominated forest after bamboo dieback in South-Central Chile (2002) Plant Ecol, 161, pp. 59-73. , 10.1023/A:1020378822847
  • Murua, R., Padula, P., Ecología y evolución de hantavirus en el Cono Sur de América (2004) Arch Med Vet, 36, pp. 1-20. , S0301-732X2004000100001&lng=es&nrm=iso&tlng=en
  • Murua, R., Gonzalez, L.A., Microhabitat selection in two Chilean cricetid rodents (1982) Oecologia, 52, pp. 12-15. , 10.1007/BF00349005
  • Piechotowski, I., Brockmann, S.O., Schwarz, C., Winter, C.H., Ranft, U., Pfaff, G., Emergence of hantavirus in South Germany: Rodents, climate and human infections (2008) Parasitol Res, 103 (SUPPL.), pp. S131-S137. , 10.1007/s00436-008-1055-8
  • Pini, N., Levis, S., Calderón, G., Ramirez, J., Bravo, D., Lozano, E., Ripoll, C., Enria, D., Hantavirus Infection in Humans and Rodents, Northwestern Argentina (2003) Emerg Infect Dis, 9. , 14519242
  • Hjelle, B., Glass, G.E., Outbreak of Hantavirus Infection in the Four Corners Region of the United States in the Wake of the 1997-1998 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (2000) J Infect Dis, 181, pp. 1569-1573. , 10.1086/315467 10823755
  • Calderon, G., Pini, N., Bolpe, J., Levis, S., Mills, J., Segura, E., Guthmann, N., Fonollat, A., Hantavirus reservoir hosts associated with peridomestic habitats in Argentina (1999) Emerg Infect Dis, 5, pp. 792-797. , 2640793 10603213
  • Piudo, L., Monteverde, M., Gonzalez Capria, S., Padula, P.J., Carmanchahi, P., Distribution and abundance of sigmodontine rodents in relation to hantavirus in Neuquén, Argentina (2005) J Vector Ecol, 30, pp. 119-125. , 16007965
  • Mills, J.N., Childs, J.E., Ecologic studies of rodent reservoires: Their relevance for human health (1998) Emerg Infect Dis, 4, pp. 529-537. , 2640244 9866729


---------- APA ----------
Carbajo, A.E., Vera, C. & González, P.L.M. (2009) . Hantavirus reservoir oligoryzomys longicaudatus spatial distribution sensitivity to climate change scenarios in Argentine Patagonia. International Journal of Health Geographics, 8(1).
---------- CHICAGO ----------
Carbajo, A.E., Vera, C., González, P.L.M. "Hantavirus reservoir oligoryzomys longicaudatus spatial distribution sensitivity to climate change scenarios in Argentine Patagonia" . International Journal of Health Geographics 8, no. 1 (2009).
---------- MLA ----------
Carbajo, A.E., Vera, C., González, P.L.M. "Hantavirus reservoir oligoryzomys longicaudatus spatial distribution sensitivity to climate change scenarios in Argentine Patagonia" . International Journal of Health Geographics, vol. 8, no. 1, 2009.
---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Carbajo, A.E., Vera, C., González, P.L.M. Hantavirus reservoir oligoryzomys longicaudatus spatial distribution sensitivity to climate change scenarios in Argentine Patagonia. Int. J. Health Geogr. 2009;8(1).