A recently launched project under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program’s (WCRP) Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments Flagship Pilot Studies program (CORDEX-FPS) is presented. This initiative aims to build first-of-its-kind ensemble climate experiments of convection permitting models to investigate present and future convective processes and related extremes over Europe and the Mediterranean. In this manuscript the rationale, scientific aims and approaches are presented along with some preliminary results from the testing phase of the project. Three test cases were selected in order to obtain a first look at the ensemble performance. The test cases covered a summertime extreme precipitation event over Austria, a fall Foehn event over the Swiss Alps and an intensively documented fall event along the Mediterranean coast. The test cases were run in both “weather-like” (WL, initialized just before the event in question) and “climate” (CM, initialized 1 month before the event) modes. Ensembles of 18–21 members, representing six different modeling systems with different physics and modelling chain options, was generated for the test cases (27 modeling teams have committed to perform the longer climate simulations). Results indicate that, when run in WL mode, the ensemble captures all three events quite well with ensemble correlation skill scores of 0.67, 0.82 and 0.91. They suggest that the more the event is driven by large-scale conditions, the closer the agreement between the ensemble members. Even in climate mode the large-scale driven events over the Swiss Alps and the Mediterranean coasts are still captured (ensemble correlation skill scores of 0.90 and 0.62, respectively), but the inter-model spread increases as expected. In the case over Mediterranean the effects of local-scale interactions between flow and orography and land–ocean contrasts are readily apparent. However, there is a much larger, though not surprising, increase in the spread for the Austrian event, which was weakly forced by the large-scale flow. Though the ensemble correlation skill score is still quite high (0.80). The preliminary results illustrate both the promise and the challenges that convection permitting modeling faces and make a strong argument for an ensemble-based approach to investigating high impact convective processes. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
Documento: | Artículo |
Título: | A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean |
Autor: | Coppola, E.; Sobolowski, S.; Pichelli, E.; Raffaele, F.; Ahrens, B.; Anders, I.; Ban, N.; Bastin, S.; Belda, M.; Belusic, D.; Caldas-Alvarez, A.; Cardoso, R.M.; Davolio, S.; Dobler, A.; Fernandez, J.; Fita, L.; Fumiere, Q.; Giorgi, F.; Goergen, K.; Güttler, I.; Halenka, T.; Heinzeller, D.; Hodnebrog, Ø.; Jacob, D.; Kartsios, S.; Katragkou, E.; Kendon, E.; Khodayar, S.; Kunstmann, H.; Knist, S.; Lavín-Gullón, A.; Lind, P.; Lorenz, T.; Maraun, D.; Marelle, L.; van Meijgaard, E.; Milovac, J.; Myhre, G.; Panitz, H.-J.; Piazza, M.; Raffa, M.; Raub, T.; Rockel, B.; Schär, C.; Sieck, K.; Soares, P.M.M.; Somot, S.; Srnec, L.; Stocchi, P.; Tölle, M.H.; Truhetz, H.; Vautard, R.; de Vries, H.; Warrach-Sagi, K. |
Filiación: | International Centre for Theoretical Physics (International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP)), Trieste, Italy Uni Research, The Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway Goethe-Universitaet Frankfurt a.M. Frankfurt/Main, Frankfurt, Germany ZAMG (Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics), Vienna, Austria Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), LATMOS, UVSQ, UPMC, CNRS, Guyancourt, France Department of Atmospheric Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrköping, Sweden Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research-Troposphere Research, Karlsruhe, Germany Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council of Italy, CNR-ISAC, Bologna, Italy The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway Meteorology Group, Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), CONICET-UBA, CNRS UMI-IFAECI, Buenos Aires, Argentina CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques), Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France Institute of Bio-and Geosciences (Agrosphere, IBG-3), Research Centre Jülich, Jülich, Germany Centre for High-Performance Scientific Computing in Terrestrial Systems, Geoverbund ABC/J, Jülich, Germany Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ), Zagreb, Croatia Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, 82467, Germany Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO, United States Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo (CICERO), Oslo, Norway Climate Service Center (CSC) Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany Department of Meteorology and Climatology, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom Institute of Geography, Augsburg University, Augsburg, Germany Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany Meteorology Group, Instituto de Física de Cantabria (IFCA), CSIC-Univ. Cantabria, Santander, Spain Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change (WEGC), University of Graz, Brandhofgasse 5, Graz, 8010, Austria Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands Institute of Physics and Meteorology (IPM), University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC Foundation), Capua, Italy Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Geesthacht, Germany Department of Geography, Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Senckenbergstr. 1, Giessen, 35390, Germany |
Palabras clave: | Climate applications; Convection-permitting; Ensemble models |
Año: | 2018 |
DOI: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4521-8 |
Título revista: | Climate Dynamics |
Título revista abreviado: | Clim. Dyn. |
ISSN: | 09307575 |
Registro: | https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_09307575_v_n_p_Coppola |