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Changes between two time slices (1961–1990 and 2071–2100) in hydroclimatological conditions for South America have been examined using an ensemble of regional climate models. Annual mean precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (E) and potential evapotranspiration (E P ) are jointly considered through the balances of land water and energy. Drying or wetting conditions, associated with changes in land water availability and atmospheric demand, are analysed in the Budyko space. The water supply limit (E limited by P) is exceeded at about 2% of the grid points, while the energy limit to evapotranspiration (E = E P ) is overall valid. Most of the continent, except for the southeast and some coastal areas, presents a shift toward drier conditions related to a decrease in water availability (the evaporation rate E/P increases) and, mostly over much of Brazil, to an increase in the aridity index (Ф = E P /P). These changes suggest less humid conditions with decreasing surface runoff over Amazonia and the Brazilian Highlands. In contrast, Argentina and the coasts of Ecuador and Peru are characterized by a tendency toward wetter conditions associated with an increase of water availability and a decrease of aridity index, primarily due to P increasing faster than both E and E P . This trend towards wetter soil conditions suggest that the chances of having larger periods of flooding and enhanced river discharges would increase over parts of southeastern South America. Interannual variability increases with Ф (for a given time slice) and with climate change (for a given aridity regimen). There are opposite interannual variability responses to the cliamte change in Argentina and Brazil by which the variability increases over the Brazilian Highlands and decreases in central-eastern Argentina. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.


Documento: Artículo
Título:Future hydroclimatological changes in South America based on an ensemble of regional climate models
Autor:Zaninelli, P.G.; Menéndez, C.G.; Falco, M.; López-Franca, N.; Carril, A.F.
Filiación:Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA/CONICET-UBA), CONICET, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Pabellon 2, Piso 2, Ciudad Universitaria, Buenos Aires, 1428, Argentina
Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios de Clima y sus Impactos (UMI3351-IFAECI/CNRS-CONICET-UBA), Buenos Aires, Argentina
Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, La Plata, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Palabras clave:Aridity index; Budyko space; Climate change; Hydroclimate of South America; Regional climate models
Página de inicio:819
Página de fin:830
Título revista:Climate Dynamics
Título revista abreviado:Clim. Dyn.


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---------- APA ----------
Zaninelli, P.G., Menéndez, C.G., Falco, M., López-Franca, N. & Carril, A.F. (2019) . Future hydroclimatological changes in South America based on an ensemble of regional climate models. Climate Dynamics, 52(1-2), 819-830.
---------- CHICAGO ----------
Zaninelli, P.G., Menéndez, C.G., Falco, M., López-Franca, N., Carril, A.F. "Future hydroclimatological changes in South America based on an ensemble of regional climate models" . Climate Dynamics 52, no. 1-2 (2019) : 819-830.
---------- MLA ----------
Zaninelli, P.G., Menéndez, C.G., Falco, M., López-Franca, N., Carril, A.F. "Future hydroclimatological changes in South America based on an ensemble of regional climate models" . Climate Dynamics, vol. 52, no. 1-2, 2019, pp. 819-830.
---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Zaninelli, P.G., Menéndez, C.G., Falco, M., López-Franca, N., Carril, A.F. Future hydroclimatological changes in South America based on an ensemble of regional climate models. Clim. Dyn. 2019;52(1-2):819-830.