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An assessment of the predictability and prediction skill of the tropospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere was done. The analysis is based on seasonal forecasts of geopotential heights at 200, 500 and 850 hPa, for austral summer and winter from 11 models participating in the Climate Historical Forecast Project. It is found that predictability (signal-to-variance ratio) and prediction skill (anomaly correlation) in the tropics is higher than in the extratropics and is also higher in summer than in winter. Both predictability and skill are higher at high than at low altitudes. Modest values of predictability and skill are found at polar latitudes in the Bellinghausen-Amundsen Seas. The analysis of the changes in predictability and prediction skill in ENSO events reveals that both are slightly higher in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years than in all years, while the spatial patterns of maxima and minima remain unchanged. Changes in signal-to-noise ratio observed are mainly due to signal changes rather than changes in noise. Composites of geopotential heights anomalies for El Niño and La Niña years are in agreement with observations. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015.


Documento: Artículo
Título:Predictability of the tropospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere from CHFP models
Autor:Osman, M.; Vera, C.S.; Doblas-Reyes, F.J.
Filiación:Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), CONICET-UBA, DCAO/FCEN, UMIIFAECI/CNRS, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Institucio Catalana de Recerca i EstudisAvançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain
Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Spain
Barcelona Supercomputing Center-Centro Nacional de Supercomputación (BSC-CNS), Barcelona, Spain
Palabras clave:El niño southern oscillation; Geopotential heights; Seasonal predictability; Southern hemisphere; atmospheric circulation; climate prediction; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; geopotential; Southern Hemisphere; troposphere; Amundsen Sea; Bellingshausen Sea; Southern Ocean
Página de inicio:2423
Página de fin:2434
Título revista:Climate Dynamics
Título revista abreviado:Clim. Dyn.


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---------- APA ----------
Osman, M., Vera, C.S. & Doblas-Reyes, F.J. (2016) . Predictability of the tropospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere from CHFP models. Climate Dynamics, 46(7-8), 2423-2434.
---------- CHICAGO ----------
Osman, M., Vera, C.S., Doblas-Reyes, F.J. "Predictability of the tropospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere from CHFP models" . Climate Dynamics 46, no. 7-8 (2016) : 2423-2434.
---------- MLA ----------
Osman, M., Vera, C.S., Doblas-Reyes, F.J. "Predictability of the tropospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere from CHFP models" . Climate Dynamics, vol. 46, no. 7-8, 2016, pp. 2423-2434.
---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Osman, M., Vera, C.S., Doblas-Reyes, F.J. Predictability of the tropospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere from CHFP models. Clim. Dyn. 2016;46(7-8):2423-2434.