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This paper identifies two sources of uncertainties in model projections of temperature and precipitation: internal and inter-model variability. Eight models of WCRP-CMIP3 and WCRP-CMIP5 were compared to identify improvements in the reliability of projections from new generation models. While no significant differences are observed between both datasets, some improvements were found in the new generation models. For example, in summer CMIP5 inter-model variability of temperature was lower over northeastern Argentina, Paraguay and northern Brazil, in the last decades of the 21st century. Reliability of temperature projections from both sets of models is high, with signal to noise ratio greater than 1 over most of the study region. Although no major differences were observed in both precipitation datasets, CMIP5 inter-model variability was lower over northern and eastern Brazil in summer (especially at the end of the 21st century). Reliability of precipitation projections was low in both datasets. However, the signal to noise ratio in new generation models was close to 1, and even greater than 1 over eastern Argentina, Uruguay and southern Brazil in some seasons. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.


Documento: Artículo
Título:Analysis of uncertainties in future climate projections for South America: Comparison of WCRP-CMIP3 and WCRP-CMIP5 models
Autor:Blázquez, J.; Nuñez, M.N.
Filiación:Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA-CONICET/FCENUBA), Ciudad Universitaria Pabellón II Piso 2, C1428EGA, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos (FCEN-UBA), Ciudad Universitaria Pabellón II Piso 2, C1428EGA, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Instituto Franco Argentino del Clima y sus Impactos (UMI IFAECI/CNRS), Ciudad Universitaria Pabellón II Piso 2, C1428EGA, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Palabras clave:CMIP3 models; CMIP5 models; Projections; South America; Uncertainties; climate modeling; climate prediction; precipitation (climatology); reliability analysis; signal-to-noise ratio; uncertainty analysis; weather forecasting; Argentina; Brazil; Paraguay
Página de inicio:1039
Página de fin:1056
Título revista:Climate Dynamics
Título revista abreviado:Clim. Dyn.


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---------- APA ----------
Blázquez, J. & Nuñez, M.N. (2013) . Analysis of uncertainties in future climate projections for South America: Comparison of WCRP-CMIP3 and WCRP-CMIP5 models. Climate Dynamics, 41(3-4), 1039-1056.
---------- CHICAGO ----------
Blázquez, J., Nuñez, M.N. "Analysis of uncertainties in future climate projections for South America: Comparison of WCRP-CMIP3 and WCRP-CMIP5 models" . Climate Dynamics 41, no. 3-4 (2013) : 1039-1056.
---------- MLA ----------
Blázquez, J., Nuñez, M.N. "Analysis of uncertainties in future climate projections for South America: Comparison of WCRP-CMIP3 and WCRP-CMIP5 models" . Climate Dynamics, vol. 41, no. 3-4, 2013, pp. 1039-1056.
---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Blázquez, J., Nuñez, M.N. Analysis of uncertainties in future climate projections for South America: Comparison of WCRP-CMIP3 and WCRP-CMIP5 models. Clim. Dyn. 2013;41(3-4):1039-1056.