Artículo

Carril, A.F.; Menéndez, C.G.; Remedio, A.R.C.; Robledo, F.; Sörensson, A.; Tencer, B.; Boulanger, J.-P.; de Castro, M.; Jacob, D.; Le Treut, H.; Li, L.Z.X.; Penalba, O.; Pfeifer, S.; Rusticucci, M.; Salio, P.; Samuelsson, P.; Sanchez, E.; Zaninelli, P. "Performance of a multi-RCM ensemble for South Eastern South America" (2012) Climate Dynamics. 39(12):2747-2768
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Abstract:

The ability of four regional climate models to reproduce the present-day South American climate is examined with emphasis on La Plata Basin. Models were integrated for the period 1991-2000 with initial and lateral boundary conditions from ERA-40 Reanalysis. The ensemble sea level pressure, maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation are evaluated in terms of seasonal means and extreme indices based on a percentile approach. Dispersion among the individual models and uncertainties when comparing the ensemble mean with different climatologies are also discussed. The ensemble mean is warmer than the observations in South Eastern South America (SESA), especially for minimum winter temperatures with errors increasing in magnitude towards the tails of the distributions. The ensemble mean reproduces the broad spatial pattern of precipitation, but overestimates the convective precipitation in the tropics and the orographic precipitation along the Andes and over the Brazilian Highlands, and underestimates the precipitation near the monsoon core region. The models overestimate the number of wet days and underestimate the daily intensity of rainfall for both seasons suggesting a premature triggering of convection. The skill of models to simulate the intensity of convective precipitation in summer in SESA and the variability associated with heavy precipitation events (the upper quartile daily precipitation) is far from satisfactory. Owing to the sparseness of the observing network, ensemble and observations uncertainties in seasonal means are comparable for some regions and seasons. © 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Registro:

Documento: Artículo
Título:Performance of a multi-RCM ensemble for South Eastern South America
Autor:Carril, A.F.; Menéndez, C.G.; Remedio, A.R.C.; Robledo, F.; Sörensson, A.; Tencer, B.; Boulanger, J.-P.; de Castro, M.; Jacob, D.; Le Treut, H.; Li, L.Z.X.; Penalba, O.; Pfeifer, S.; Rusticucci, M.; Salio, P.; Samuelsson, P.; Sanchez, E.; Zaninelli, P.
Filiación:Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), CONICET-UBA, Ciudad Universitaria, Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires, Int. Guiraldes 2160, Pabellón 2, Piso 2, C1428EGA Buenos Aires, Argentina
Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos (DCAO), FCEN, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
UMI IFAECI/CNRS, Buenos Aires, Argentina
LOCEAN, UMR CNRS/IRD/UPMC, Paris, France
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Hamburg, Germany
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD), Institut-Pierre-Simon-Laplace et Ecole Doctorale, Sciences de l'Environnement en Ile de France, Paris, France
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrköping, Sweden
Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM), Toledo, Spain
Palabras clave:Multi-RCM ensemble validation; Regional climate models; South America; South Eastern South America; boundary condition; climate modeling; climatology; ensemble forecasting; orographic effect; precipitation intensity; regional climate; spatial analysis; La Plata Basin
Año:2012
Volumen:39
Número:12
Página de inicio:2747
Página de fin:2768
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1573-z
Título revista:Climate Dynamics
Título revista abreviado:Clim. Dyn.
ISSN:09307575
Registro:https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_09307575_v39_n12_p2747_Carril

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Citas:

---------- APA ----------
Carril, A.F., Menéndez, C.G., Remedio, A.R.C., Robledo, F., Sörensson, A., Tencer, B., Boulanger, J.-P.,..., Zaninelli, P. (2012) . Performance of a multi-RCM ensemble for South Eastern South America. Climate Dynamics, 39(12), 2747-2768.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1573-z
---------- CHICAGO ----------
Carril, A.F., Menéndez, C.G., Remedio, A.R.C., Robledo, F., Sörensson, A., Tencer, B., et al. "Performance of a multi-RCM ensemble for South Eastern South America" . Climate Dynamics 39, no. 12 (2012) : 2747-2768.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1573-z
---------- MLA ----------
Carril, A.F., Menéndez, C.G., Remedio, A.R.C., Robledo, F., Sörensson, A., Tencer, B., et al. "Performance of a multi-RCM ensemble for South Eastern South America" . Climate Dynamics, vol. 39, no. 12, 2012, pp. 2747-2768.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1573-z
---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Carril, A.F., Menéndez, C.G., Remedio, A.R.C., Robledo, F., Sörensson, A., Tencer, B., et al. Performance of a multi-RCM ensemble for South Eastern South America. Clim. Dyn. 2012;39(12):2747-2768.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1573-z