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Abstract:

In this work, we consider historical earthquakes registered in Chile (from 1900 up to 2010) with epicenters located between 19 and 40°S latitude, in order to evaluate the probabilities of the occurrence of strong earthquakes along Chile in the near future. Applying Gumbel's technique of first asymptotic distribution, Wemelsfelder's theory and Gutenberg-Richter relationship, we estimate that during the next decade strong earthquakes with Richter magnitudes larger than 8. 7-8. 9 could occur along Chile. According to our analysis, probabilities for the occurrence of such a strong earthquake range between 64 and 46% respectively. Particularly in the very well known "seismic gap" of Arica, a convergence motion between Nazca and South American plates of 77-78 mm/year represents more than 10 m of displacement accumulated since the last big interplate subduction earthquake in this area over 134 years ago. Therefore, this area already has the potential for an earthquake of magnitude >8. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Registro:

Documento: Artículo
Título:Statistics of major Chilean earthquakes recurrence
Autor:Silbergleit, V.; Prezzi, C.
Filiación:Facultad de Ingeniería, CONICET-Universidad de Buenos Aires, Av. Las Heras 2214, C1127AAR, C.A.B.A, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Dpto. de Cs. Geológicas, FCEyN, IGEBA, CONICET-Universidad de Buenos Aires, Ciudad Universitaria, Pabellón 2, 1428, C.A.B.A. Buenos Aires, Argentina
Palabras clave:Major Chilean earthquakes; Nazca plate; South American plate; Statistical analysis; earthquake epicenter; earthquake event; earthquake magnitude; earthquake recurrence; Nazca plate; statistical analysis; subduction; Arica; Arica and Parinacota; Chile
Año:2012
Volumen:62
Número:2
Página de inicio:445
Página de fin:458
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0086-8
Título revista:Natural Hazards
Título revista abreviado:Nat. Hazards
ISSN:0921030X
Registro:https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_0921030X_v62_n2_p445_Silbergleit

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Citas:

---------- APA ----------
Silbergleit, V. & Prezzi, C. (2012) . Statistics of major Chilean earthquakes recurrence. Natural Hazards, 62(2), 445-458.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0086-8
---------- CHICAGO ----------
Silbergleit, V., Prezzi, C. "Statistics of major Chilean earthquakes recurrence" . Natural Hazards 62, no. 2 (2012) : 445-458.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0086-8
---------- MLA ----------
Silbergleit, V., Prezzi, C. "Statistics of major Chilean earthquakes recurrence" . Natural Hazards, vol. 62, no. 2, 2012, pp. 445-458.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0086-8
---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Silbergleit, V., Prezzi, C. Statistics of major Chilean earthquakes recurrence. Nat. Hazards. 2012;62(2):445-458.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0086-8