Artículo

El editor solo permite decargar el artículo en su versión post-print desde el repositorio. Por favor, si usted posee dicha versión, enviela a
Consulte el artículo en la página del editor
Consulte la política de Acceso Abierto del editor

Abstract:

Southern South America (SSA), considered as the continental region south of 20°S, has experienced significant precipitation variability and trends in the last decades. This article uses monthly quality-controlled precipitation data from rainfall stations with continuous observations during at least 100 years to quantify long-term trends as well as interannual-to-centennial variability. Several statistical methods are applied to the data, primarily to detect jumps and look for changes due to relocation of the gauge stations, as well as to identify significant trends. Most of the regions have registered an increase in annual rainfall, largely attributable to changes in the warm season. On the other hand, during winter most stations in Argentina and Brazil do not have significant trends, although eastern Patagonia registered an increase in precipitation and Chile, a marked decrease in rainfall. In order to look into the physical mechanisms behind the observed variability, the changes in mean sea level pressure and precipitable water are quantified for different sub-periods. Also explored is the variability related to the Hadley cell width and strength over the region around SSA. Results show that the Hadley cell has shrunk and shifted towards the equator in winter over the area, which has caused an enhancement of the sinking motion over much of Argentina, Chile and Brazil, while likely increasing the baroclinicity (and associated precipitation) over Patagonia. In summer, the strength of the subsidence decreased and this was associated with an increase of the low-level moisture advection, favouring more rainfall. The observational evidence presented here suggests that the zonal asymmetry in the change of the Hadley cell position over SSA could be linked to the presence of the Andes Cordillera. © 2016 Royal Meteorological Society

Registro:

Documento: Artículo
Título:Low-frequency variability and trends in centennial precipitation stations in southern South America
Autor:Saurral, R.I.; Camilloni, I.A.; Barros, V.R.
Filiación:Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera, UBA-CONICET, UMI-IFAECI/CNRS, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, FCEN, UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Palabras clave:Hadley cell; precipitation; southern South America; trends and variability; Cells; Climate change; Clouds; Cytology; Precipitation (chemical); Rain; Sea level; Centennial variability; Controlled precipitation; Hadley cells; Low frequency variability; Mean sea level pressures; Precipitation variability; Southern south america; Trends and variability; Precipitation (meteorology); advection; annual variation; atmospheric circulation; moisture; precipitation (climatology); rainfall; sea level pressure; trend analysis; Andes; Argentina; Brazil; Chile; Cordillera; Paraguay; Patagonia
Año:2017
Volumen:37
Número:4
Página de inicio:1774
Página de fin:1793
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.4810
Título revista:International Journal of Climatology
Título revista abreviado:Int. J. Climatol.
ISSN:08998418
CODEN:IJCLE
Registro:https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_08998418_v37_n4_p1774_Saurral

Referencias:

  • Agosta, E.A., Compagnucci, R.H., Central-west Argentina summer precipitation variability and atmospheric teleconnections (2012) J. Clim., 25, pp. 1657-1677
  • Arblaster, J.M., Meehl, G.A., Karoly, D.J., Future climate change in the Southern Hemisphere: competing effects of ozone and greenhouse gases (2011) Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, p. L02701
  • Barnes, E.A., Barnes, N.W., Polvani, L.M., Delayed Southern Hemisphere climate change induced by stratospheric ozone recovery, as projected by the CMIP5 models (2014) J. Clim., 27, pp. 852-867
  • Barreiro, M., Influence of ENSO and the South Atlantic Ocean on climate predictability over southeastern South America (2010) Clim. Dyn., 35, pp. 1493-1508
  • Barros, V.R., Castañeda, M.E., Doyle, M.E., Recent precipitation trends in Southern South America east of the Andes: an indication of climatic variability (2000) Southern Hemisphere Paleo- and Neoclimates. Key Sites, Methods, Data and Models, pp. 187-206. , In, Smolka P, Volkheimer V, (eds)., Springer, Berlin
  • Barros, V.R., Doyle, M.E., Camilloni, I.A., Precipitation trends in southeastern South America: relationship with ENSO phases and with low-level circulation (2008) Theor. Appl. Climatol., 93, pp. 19-33
  • Berbery, E.H., Barros, V.R., The hydrologic cycle of the La Plata Basin in South America (2002) J. Hydrometeorol., 3, pp. 630-645
  • Blackman, R.B., Tukey, J.W., The measurement of power spectra from the point of view of communications engineering, Part I (1958) Bell System Tech. J., 37, pp. 185-282
  • Ceppi, P., Hartmann, D., On the speed of the eddy-driven jet and the width of the Hadley cell in the Southern Hemisphere (2013) J. Clim., 26, pp. 3450-3465
  • Choi, J., Son, S.W., Lu, J., Min, S.K., Further observational evidence of Hadley cell widening in the Southern Hemisphere (2014) Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, pp. 2590-2597
  • Compagnucci, R.H., Agosta, E.A., Vargas, W.M., Climatic change and quasi-oscillations in central-west Argentina summer precipitation: main features and coherent behaviour with southern African region (2002) Clim. Dyn., 18, pp. 421-435
  • Compo, G.P., Whitaker, J.S., Sardeshmukh, P.D., Matsui, N., Allan, R.J., Yin, X., Gleason, B.E., Worley, S.J., The twentieth century reanalysis project (2011) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 137, pp. 1-28
  • Di Luca, A., Camilloni, I.A., Barros, V.R., Sea level patterns in South America and their adjacent oceans in the IPCC AR4 models (2006) 8th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography, , Preprints of the
  • Doyle, M.E., Barros, V.R., Midsummer low-level circulation and precipitation in subtropical South America and related sea surface temperature anomalies in the South Atlantic (2002) J. Clim., 15, pp. 3394-3410
  • Doyle, M.E., Saurral, R.I., Barros, V.R., Trends in the distributions of aggregated monthly precipitation over the La Plata Basin (2012) Int. J. Climatol., 32, pp. 2149-2162
  • Ferrero, M.E., Villalba, R., De Membiela, M., Ferri Hidalgo, L., Luckman, B.H., Tree-ring based reconstruction of Río Bermejo streamflow in subtropical South America (2015) J. Hydrol., 525, pp. 572-584
  • Gonzalez, P.L.M., Polvani, L., Seager, R., Correa, G., Stratospheric ozone depletion: a key driver of recent precipitation trends in South Eastern South America (2014) Clim. Dyn., 42, pp. 1775-1792
  • Grimm, A.M., Barros, V.R., Doyle, M.E., Climate variability in southern South America associated with El Niño and La Niña events (2000) J. Clim., 13, pp. 35-58
  • Hartigan, J., Wong, M., Algorithm AS 136: a K-means clustering algorithm (1979) J. R. Stat. Soc., 28, pp. 100-108
  • Hu, Y., Zhou, C., Liu, J., Observational evidence for poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation (2011) Adv. Atmos. Sci., 28, pp. 33-44
  • Inatsu, M., Hoskins, B.J., The zonal asymmetry of the Southern Hemisphere winter storm track (2004) J. Clim., 17, pp. 4882-4892
  • Jacques-Copper, M., Garreaud, R.D., Characterization of the 1970s climate shift in South America (2015) Int. J. Climatol., 35, pp. 2164-2179
  • Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L., Iredell, M., Joseph, D., The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project (1996) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, pp. 437-471
  • Kayano, M.T., de Oliveira, C.P., Andreoli, R.V., Interannual relations between South American rainfall and tropical sea surface temperature anomalies before and after 1976 (2009) Int. J. Climatol., 29, pp. 1439-1448
  • Lawrimore, J.H., Menne, J., Gleason, B., Williams, C., Wuertz, D., Vose, R., Rennie, J., An overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network monthly mean temperature data set, version 3 (2011) J. Geophys. Res., 116, p. D19121
  • Le Quesne, C., Stahle, D., Cleaveland, M., Therrell, M., Aravena, J.C., Barichivich, J., Ancient Austrocedrus tree-ring chronologies used to reconstruct central Chile precipitation variability from A.D. 1200 to 2000 (2006) J. Clim., 19, pp. 5731-5744
  • Liebmann, B., Vera, C.S., Carvalho, L.M.V., Camilloni, I.A., Hoerling, M.P., Allured, D., Barros, V.R., Bidegain, M., An observed trend in central South American precipitation (2004) J. Clim., 17, pp. 4357-4367
  • Liu, J., Song, M., Hu, Y., Ren, X., Changes in the strength and width of the Hadley circulation since 1871 (2012) Clim. Past, 8, pp. 1169-1175
  • Luckman, B.H., Villalba, R., Assessing the synchronicity of glacier fluctuations in the western Cordillera of the Americas during the last millennium (2001) Interhemispheric Climate Linkages, pp. 119-140. , In, Markgraf V, (ed)., Academic Press, San Diego, CA
  • Marshall, G.J., Trends in the southern annual mode from observations and reanalyses (2003) J. Clim., 16, pp. 4134-4143
  • Miller, A., Cayan, D., Barnett, T., Graham, N., Oberhuber, J., The 1976–77 climate shift of the Pacific Ocean (1994) Oceanography, 7, pp. 21-26
  • Mitchell, J.M., Dzerdzeevskii, B., Flohn, H., Hofmeyer, W., Lamb, H., Rao, K., Wallen, C., Climatic Change (1966) Tech. Note, WMO, 79, p. 79
  • Penalba, O.C., Robledo, F.A., Spatial and temporal variability of the frequency of extreme daily rainfall regime in the La Plata Basin during the 20th century (2009) Clim. Change, 98, pp. 531-550
  • Pettitt, A.N., A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem (1979) Appl. Stat., 28, pp. 126-135
  • Piovano, E.L., Arizteqgui, D., Damatto, M.S., Recent environmental changes in Laguna Mar Chiquita (central Argentina): a sedimentary model for a highly variable saline lake (2002) Sedimentology, 49, pp. 1371-1384
  • Polvani, L.M., Previdi, M., Deser, C., Large cancellation, due to ozone recovery, of future Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation trends (2011) Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, p. L04707
  • Popescu, I., Brandimarte, L., Perera, M.S.U., Peviani, M., Assessing residual hydropower potential of the La Plata Basin accounting for future user demands (2012) Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, pp. 2813-2823
  • Quintana, J.M., Aceituno, P., Changes in the rainfall regime along the extratropical west coast of South America (Chile): 30-43° S (2012) Atmósfera, 25, pp. 1-22
  • Rao, V.B., Franchito, S.H., Santo, C.M.E., Gan, M.A., An update on the rainfall characteristics of Brazil: seasonal variations and trends in 1979–2011 (2016) Int. J. Climatol., 36, pp. 291-302
  • Rodionov, S.N., A sequential method for detecting climate shifts in the mean and variance (2005) Large-Scale Disturbances (Regime Shifts) and Recovery in Aquatic Ecosystems: Challenges for Management toward Sustainability, pp. 68-72. , In, Velikova V, Chipev N, (eds)., UNESCO-ROSTE/BAS Workshop on Regione Shifts, Varna, Bulgaria
  • Seidel, D.J., Randel, W.J., Recent widening of the tropical belt: evidence from tropopause observations (2007) J. Geophys. Res., 112, p. D20113
  • Silvestri, G., Vera, C.S., Nonstationary impacts of the southern annular mode on Southern Hemisphere climate (2009) J. Clim., 22, pp. 6142-6148
  • Vargas, W.M., (1977) Incidencias teórico-prácticas del balance hídrico y propuesta de una mejor aproximación a la región húmeda argentina (Theoretical-Practical Incidences of Water Balance and Proposal for a Better Approximation to the Wet Region of Argentina), , PhD thesis, University of Buenos Aires (in Spanish)
  • Venegas, S.A., Mysak, L.A., Straub, D.N., Atmosphere–ocean coupled variability in the South Atlantic (1997) J. Clim., 10, pp. 2904-2920
  • Viglizzo, E., Frank, F.C., Ecological interactions, feedbacks, thresholds and collapses in the Argentine Pampas in response to climate and farming during the last century (2006) Quat. Int., 158, pp. 122-126
  • Wilks, D.S., (2006) Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, , 2nd edn., Academic Press, Waltham, MA
  • Woodruff, D.S., Slutz, R.J., Jenne, R.L., Steurer, P.M., A comprehensive ocean–atmosphere data set (1987) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 68, pp. 521-527
  • Wu, Y., Polvani, L., Contrasting short and long term projections of the hydrological cycle in the Southern extratropics (2015) J. Clim., 28, pp. 5845-5856

Citas:

---------- APA ----------
Saurral, R.I., Camilloni, I.A. & Barros, V.R. (2017) . Low-frequency variability and trends in centennial precipitation stations in southern South America. International Journal of Climatology, 37(4), 1774-1793.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.4810
---------- CHICAGO ----------
Saurral, R.I., Camilloni, I.A., Barros, V.R. "Low-frequency variability and trends in centennial precipitation stations in southern South America" . International Journal of Climatology 37, no. 4 (2017) : 1774-1793.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.4810
---------- MLA ----------
Saurral, R.I., Camilloni, I.A., Barros, V.R. "Low-frequency variability and trends in centennial precipitation stations in southern South America" . International Journal of Climatology, vol. 37, no. 4, 2017, pp. 1774-1793.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.4810
---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Saurral, R.I., Camilloni, I.A., Barros, V.R. Low-frequency variability and trends in centennial precipitation stations in southern South America. Int. J. Climatol. 2017;37(4):1774-1793.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.4810