Navegar

Colección

Datos Estadísticas

Artículo

El editor solo permite decargar el artículo en su versión post-print desde el repositorio. Por favor, si usted posee dicha versión, enviela a
Consulte el artículo en la página del editor
Consulte la política de Acceso Abierto del editor

Abstract:

The series of 16 Climate Outlook Forums' (COFs') seasonal precipitation forecasts for southeast South America since December 1997 are verified. The COFs' forecasts consist of a probabilistic tercile distribution of precipitation for the upcoming 3 months period, over a domain in South America between 20 and 40°S, to the east of the Andes Mountains. The COFs' forecast is the result of the consensus agreement between atmosphere model predictions, physically based statistical model predictions, results of diagnostic analysis and published research on climate variability over the region, and expert interpretation of this information in the context of the current situation. The validation is conducted by means of the hit score (HS), which expresses the percentage of forecasts verified in the dominant predicted category, and the ranked probability skill Score (RPSS), which measures the difference between the probability distribution of the forecasts and the observed categories. The HS reveals that over most of the region the categorical agreement is low and close to 33%, which is the result that would be obtained by a three-category random forecast, and only sparse regions achieve a categorical agreement between 40 and 50%. The regions with positive RPSS (i.e. forecasts better than climatology and potentially useful for applications) represent 30% of the total area considered by the COFs. There are significantly large regions with negative RPSS, i.e. forecasts worse than climatology. The result of the COFs' forecasts is compared with that of the IRI Net Assessment forecasts, the only source of physically based seasonal forecasts regularly available at the COFs' discussions. There is general coincidence in the regions with positive and negative skill. Although one might expect the consensus of the COFs' forecasts to improve upon the skill of the IRI forecast, this was not the case during this period. Copyright 2005 Royal Meteorological Society.

Registro:

Documento: Artículo
Título:Evaluation of the climate outlook forums' seasonal precipitation forecasts of southeast South America during 1998-2002
Autor:Berri, G.J.; Antico, P.L.; Goddard, L.
Filiación:Department of Atmosph./Oceanic Sci., University of Buenos Aires, Pabellon 2 Ciudad Universitaria, 1428 Buenos Aires, Argentina
Intl. Res. Inst. Climate Prediction, Palisades, NY, United States
Palabras clave:Climate variability; Seasonal precipitation forecast; South America; Validation; Expert systems; Geographical regions; Mathematical models; Precipitation (meteorology); Probability; Random processes; Statistical methods; Weather forecasting; Climate outlook forums (COF); Hit score (HS); Probabilistic tercile distribution; Ranked probability skill score (RPSS); Climate change; atmospheric modeling; long range forecast; precipitation (climatology); weather forecasting; South America; Western Hemisphere; World
Año:2005
Volumen:25
Número:3
Página de inicio:365
Página de fin:377
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.1129
Título revista:International Journal of Climatology
Título revista abreviado:Int. J. Climatol.
ISSN:08998418
CODEN:IJCLE
Registro:https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_08998418_v25_n3_p365_Berri

Referencias:

  • Berri, G.J., Practical applications of statistical modeling of seasonal to interannual climate variability to environmental problems in South America (1996) Anais De Academia Brasileira De Ciencias, 68, pp. 223-238
  • Berri, G.J., El Niño impact on water resources in Central and South America, and new methodologies of practical use to seasonal and interannual hydrologic forecasts (1997), (ed.). IRIP-CR-SF96/1 (available at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI), Palisades NY, USA); Berri, G.J., Flamenco, E., Seasonal volume forecast of the Diamante River, Argentina, based on El Niño observations and predictions (1999) Water Resources Research, 35, pp. 3803-3810
  • Berri, G.J., Flamenco, E.A., Spescha, L., Tanco, R.A., Hurtado, R., Some effects of La Niña on summer rainfall, water resources and crops in Argentina (2002) La Niña and Its Societal Impacts: Facts and Speculation, , Glantz MH (ed.). United Nations University Press: 2002
  • Goddard, L., Mason, S.J., Zebiak, S.E., Ropelewski, C.F., Basher, R., Cane, M.A., Current approaches to seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions (2001) International Journal of Climatology, 21, pp. 1111-1152
  • Goddard, L., Barnston, A.G., Mason, S.J., Evaluation of the IRI's 'Net Assessment' seasonal climate forecasts 1997-2001 (2003) Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 84, pp. 1761-1781
  • Grimm, A.M., Feraz, S.E.T., Gomes, J., Precipitation anomalies in southern Brazil associated with El Niño and La Niña events (1998) Journal of Climate, 11, pp. 2863-2880
  • Janowiak, J.E., Xie, P., CAMS-OPI: A global satellite-rain gauge merged product for real-time precipitation monitoring applications (1999) Journal of Climate, 12, pp. 3335-3342
  • Lall, U., Sharma, A., A nearest neighbor bootstrap for resampling hydrologic time series (1996) Water Resources Research, 32, pp. 679-693
  • Marengo, J.A., Cavalcanti, I.F.A., Satyamurty, P., Trosnikov, I., Nobre, C.A., Bonatti, J.P., Camargo, H., Pezzi, L.P., Assessment of regional seasonal rainfall predictability using the CPTEC /COLA atmospheric GCM (2003) Climate Dynamics, 21, pp. 459-475
  • Mason, S.J., Goddard, L., Probabilistic precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO (2001) Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 82, pp. 619-638
  • Mason, S.J., Goddard, L., Graham, N.E., Yulaeva, E., Sun, L., Arkin, P.A., The IRI seasonal climate prediction system and the 1997/1998 El Niño event (1999) Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 80, pp. 1853-1873
  • Montecinos, A., Diaz, A., Aceituno, P., Seasonal diagnostic and predictability of rainfall in subtropical South America based on tropical Pacific SST (2000) Journal of Climate, 13, pp. 746-758
  • New, M., Hulme, M., Jones, P., Representing twentieth-century space-time climate variability. Part I: Development of a 1961-90 mean monthly terrestrial climatology (1999) Journal of Climate, 12, pp. 829-856
  • New, M., Hulme, M., Jones, P., Representing twentieth-century space-time climate variability. Part II: Development of 1901-96 monthly grids of terrestrial surface climate (2000) Journal of Climate, 13, pp. 2217-2238
  • Pisciottano, G., Diaz, A., Cazes, G., Mechoso, C., El-Niño southern oscillation impact on rainfall in Uruguay (1994) Journal of Climate, 7, pp. 1286-1302
  • Repelli, C.A., Nobre, P., Statistical prediction of sea-surface temperature over the tropical Atlantic (2004) International Journal of Climatology, 24, pp. 45-55
  • Ropelewski, C.F., Halpert, M.S., Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/southern oscillation (1987) Monthly Weather Review, 115, pp. 1606-1626
  • Ropelewski, C.F., Halpert, M.S., Precipitation patterns associated with high index phase of southern oscillation (1989) Journal of Climate, 2, pp. 268-284
  • Wilks, D.S., (1995) Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, , Academic Press
  • Xie, P., Arkin, P.A., A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates and numerical model outputs (1997) Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 78, pp. 2539-2558

Citas:

---------- APA ----------
Berri, G.J., Antico, P.L. & Goddard, L. (2005) . Evaluation of the climate outlook forums' seasonal precipitation forecasts of southeast South America during 1998-2002. International Journal of Climatology, 25(3), 365-377.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.1129
---------- CHICAGO ----------
Berri, G.J., Antico, P.L., Goddard, L. "Evaluation of the climate outlook forums' seasonal precipitation forecasts of southeast South America during 1998-2002" . International Journal of Climatology 25, no. 3 (2005) : 365-377.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.1129
---------- MLA ----------
Berri, G.J., Antico, P.L., Goddard, L. "Evaluation of the climate outlook forums' seasonal precipitation forecasts of southeast South America during 1998-2002" . International Journal of Climatology, vol. 25, no. 3, 2005, pp. 365-377.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.1129
---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Berri, G.J., Antico, P.L., Goddard, L. Evaluation of the climate outlook forums' seasonal precipitation forecasts of southeast South America during 1998-2002. Int. J. Climatol. 2005;25(3):365-377.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.1129