Abstract:
The aim of the present work is to address the description of hyperinflation regimens in economy. The spirals of hyperinflation developed in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua are revisited. This new analysis of data indicates that the episodes occurred in Brazil and Nicaragua can be understood within the frame of the model available in the literature, which is based on a nonlinear feedback (NLF) characterized by an exponent β>0. In the NLF model the accumulated consumer price index carries a finite time singularity of the type 1/(tc−t)(1−β)/β determining a critical time tc at which the economy would crash. It is shown that in the case of Brazil the entire episode cannot be described with a unique set of parameters because the time series was strongly affected by a change of policy. This fact gives support to the “so called” Lucas critique, who stated that model's parameters usually change once policy changes. On the other hand, such a model is not able to provide any tc in the case of the weaker hyperinflation occurred in Israel. It is shown that in this case the fit of data yields β→0. This limit leads to the linear feedback formulation which does not predict any tc. An extension for the NLF model is suggested. © 2016 Elsevier B.V.
Registro:
Documento: |
Artículo
|
Título: | Hyperinflation in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua revisited |
Autor: | Szybisz, M.A.; Szybisz, L. |
Filiación: | Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Av. Córdoba 2122, Buenos Aires, RA–1120, Argentina Laboratorio TANDAR, Departamento de Física, Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica, Av. del Libertador 8250, Buenos Aires, RA–1429, Argentina Departamento de Física, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Ciudad Universitaria, Buenos Aires, RA–1428, Argentina Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Av. Rivadavia 1917, Buenos Aires, RA–1033, Argentina
|
Palabras clave: | Critical exponents; Economics, econophysics; Interdisciplinary applications of physics; Singularity theory; Social and economic systems; Accidents; Nonlinear feedback; Analysis of data; Consumer price index; Critical exponent; Econophysicss; Finite time singularity; Linear feedback; Singularity theory; Social and economic systems; Economics |
Año: | 2017
|
Volumen: | 465
|
Página de inicio: | 1
|
Página de fin: | 12
|
DOI: |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2016.07.052 |
Título revista: | Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
|
Título revista abreviado: | Phys A Stat Mech Appl
|
ISSN: | 03784371
|
CODEN: | PHYAD
|
Registro: | https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_03784371_v465_n_p1_Szybisz |
Referencias:
- Mantegna, R.N., Stanley, E., An Introduction to Econophysics: Correlations and Complexity in Finance (1999), Cambridge University Press Cambridge, England; Moss de Oliveira, S., de Oliveira, P.M.C., Stauffer, D., Evolution, Money, War and Computers (1999), Teubner Stuttgart-Leipzig; Sornette, D., Why Stock Markets Crash (Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems) (2003), Princeton University Press Princeton; Sornette, D., Takayasu, H., Zhou, W.-X., Finite-time singularity signature of hyperinflation (2003) Physica A, 325, pp. 492-506
- Szybisz, M.A., Szybisz, L., Finite-time singularity in the evolution of hyperinflation episodes http://arxiv.org/abs/0802.3553; Szybisz, M.A., Szybisz, L., Finite-time singularities in the dynamics of hyperinflation in an economy (2009) Phys. Rev. B, 80. , 0261167/1-11
- Szybisz, L., Szybisz, M.A., People's collective behavior in a hyperinflation (2010) Adv. Appl. Stat. Sci., 2, pp. 315-331
- Szybisz, L., Szybisz, M.A., Universality of the behavior at the final stage of hyperinflation episodes in economy (2015) Anales AFA, 26, pp. 142-147
- Cagan, P., The monetary dynamics of hyperinflation (1956) Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money, , M. Friedman University of Chicago Press Chicago
- Mizuno, T., Takayasu, M., Takayasu, H., The mechanism of double-exponential growth in hyperinflation (2002) Physica A, 308, pp. 411-419
- Bresser Pereira, L.C., Nakano, Y., (1991) Hyperinflation and Stabilization in Brazil: The first Collor Plan, Post-Keynesian Conference, Knoxville, Tennessee, June 1990, Economic Problems of the 1990’s, pp. 41-68. , P. Davidson J. Kregel Edward Elgar London
- Mérette, M., Post-mortem of a stabilization plan: The collor plan in Brazil (2000) J. Policy Model., 22 (4), pp. 417-452
- http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2002/01/data/index.htm, Table of the International Monetary Fund,; Lucas, R.E., Jr., Econometric policy evaluation: A critique (1976) The Phillips Curve and Labor Market, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1. , K. Brunner A.H. Meltzer North-Holland Amsterdam
- Bevington, P.R., Data Reduction and Error Analysis for the Physical Sciences (1969), McGraw Hill New York; Press, W.H., Teukolsky, S.A., Vetterling, W.T., Flannery, B.P., Numerical Recipes in Fortran, Vol. 77 (1996), Cambridge University Press Cambridge; Ocampo, J.A., Taylor, L., Nicaragüense, L.H., (1990) Inflación Rebelde en América Latina, pp. 71-108. , J.P. Arellano CIEPLAN/HACHETTE Santiago (Chile)
- Ocampo, J.A., Collapse and (incomplete) stabilization of the nicaraguan economy (1991) The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America, pp. 331-368. , R. Dornbusch S. Edwards University of Chicago Press Chicago
- http://www.indexmundi.com/nicaragua/, Table of the International Monetary Fund,; Leiderman, L., Liviatan, N., The 1985 stabilization from the perspective of the 1990’s (2003) Israel Eco. Rev., 1 (1), pp. 103-131
- Tsallis, C., Anteneodo, C., Borland, L., Osorio, R., Nonextensive statistical mechanics and economics (2003) Physica A, 324, pp. 89-100
- Szybisz, M.A., Szybisz, L., Extended nonlinear feedback model for describing episodes of high inflation (2016) Physica A, , http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2016.07.014, http://arxiv.org/abs/1605.04945v1
- Keynes, J.M., (1930) A Treatise on Money, vols. I-II, Harcourt, , Brace and Co. New York
- (1936) The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, , Macmillan and Co. London both reprinted by D.E. Moggridge (Ed.), The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, Macmillan, London, 1973
Citas:
---------- APA ----------
Szybisz, M.A. & Szybisz, L.
(2017)
. Hyperinflation in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua revisited. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 465, 1-12.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2016.07.052---------- CHICAGO ----------
Szybisz, M.A., Szybisz, L.
"Hyperinflation in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua revisited"
. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 465
(2017) : 1-12.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2016.07.052---------- MLA ----------
Szybisz, M.A., Szybisz, L.
"Hyperinflation in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua revisited"
. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, vol. 465, 2017, pp. 1-12.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2016.07.052---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Szybisz, M.A., Szybisz, L. Hyperinflation in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua revisited. Phys A Stat Mech Appl. 2017;465:1-12.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2016.07.052