Artículo
Abstract:
Low visibility events are sometimes associated with delays and accidents related with air and land transportation. An accurate forecast of low visibility events can help to reduce the economical and human life losses associated with this phenomenon. This work contributes to the improvement of visibility forecast proposing a dynamic-statistical model that generates probabilistic visibility forecasts. This model combines retrospective forecast generated with a global model and in-situ observations. The proposed model is used to generate probabilistic visibility forecasts for Ezeiza airport between December 1984 and January 2011. Results show that combining in-situ observations and numerical model outputs increases the skill of the probabilistic forecasts with respect to the probabilistic forecast that are based only on observations or only on numerical model outputs. Considering the dependence of systematic numerical model errors with the time of the year produce an additional increase in the forecast skill. © 2017, Centro Argentino de Meteorologos. Los eventos de visibilidad reducida producen complicaciones y accidentes en el transporte aéreo y terrestre. Por tal motivo, su pronóstico ayuda a reducir las pérdidas materiales y humanas asociadas a dichos fenómenos. El presente estudio contribuye a mejorar el pronóstico de visibilidad mediante un modelo dinámico-estadístico que produce pronósticos probabilísticos de visibilidad. Dicho modelo está basado en la combinación de un conjunto de pronósticos retrospectivos globales y observaciones in-situ. El modelo propuesto es utilizado para generar pronósticos probabilísticos de visibilidad para diferentes umbrales de visibilidad en el aeropuerto de Ezeiza en el período comprendido entre diciembre de 1984 y enero de 2011. Los resultados de la evaluación muestran que la combinación de los datos observados con las variables pronosticadas por el modelo dinámico produce pronósticos que tienen mejor desempeño que los que utilizan solo observaciones o solo las variables pronosticadas por el modelo dinámico. Asimismo se encontró que considerar la variación de los errores sistemáticos del modelo, con la época del año permite introducir mejoras adicionales en el desempeño del pronóstico probabilístico. © 2017, Centro Argentino de Meteorologos.
Registro:
| Documento: | Artículo |
| Título: | Visibility probabilistic forecasts based on numerical retrospective forecasts and observations |
| Autor: | Ruiz, J.J.; Schonholz, T.; Saulo, C. |
| Filiación: | Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CONICET-UBA), Argentina UMI-IFAECI (CNRS-UBA-CONICET), Argentina Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos (FCEyN-UBA), Argentina Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, Argentina |
| Palabras clave: | Probabilistic forecasts; Pronósticos probabilísticos; Pronósticos retrospectivos; Retrospective forecasts; Visibilidad; Visibility |
| Año: | 2018 |
| Volumen: | 43 |
| Número: | 1 |
| Página de inicio: | 73 |
| Página de fin: | 96 |
| Título revista: | Meteorologica |
| Título revista abreviado: | Meteorologica |
| ISSN: | 0325187X |
| Registro: | https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_0325187X_v43_n1_p73_Ruiz |
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Citas:
---------- APA ----------
Ruiz, J.J., Schonholz, T. & Saulo, C. (2018) . Visibility probabilistic forecasts based on numerical retrospective forecasts and observations . Meteorologica, 43(1), 73-96.Recuperado de https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_0325187X_v43_n1_p73_Ruiz [ ]
---------- CHICAGO ----------
Ruiz, J.J., Schonholz, T., Saulo, C. "Visibility probabilistic forecasts based on numerical retrospective forecasts and observations " . Meteorologica 43, no. 1 (2018) : 73-96.Recuperado de https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_0325187X_v43_n1_p73_Ruiz [ ]
---------- MLA ----------
Ruiz, J.J., Schonholz, T., Saulo, C. "Visibility probabilistic forecasts based on numerical retrospective forecasts and observations " . Meteorologica, vol. 43, no. 1, 2018, pp. 73-96.Recuperado de https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_0325187X_v43_n1_p73_Ruiz [ ]
---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Ruiz, J.J., Schonholz, T., Saulo, C. Visibility probabilistic forecasts based on numerical retrospective forecasts and observations . Meteorologica. 2018;43(1):73-96.Available from: https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_0325187X_v43_n1_p73_Ruiz [ ]
