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Abstract:

The persistence and long-term memories in daily maximum and minimum temperature series during the instrumental period in southern South America were analysed. Here, we found a markedly seasonal pattern both for short- and long-term memories that can lead to enhanced predictability on intraseasonal timescales. In addition, well-defined spatial patterns of these properties were found in the region. Throughout the entire region, the strongest dependence was observed in autumn and early winter. In the Patagonia region only, the temperatures exhibited more memory during the spring. In general, these elements indicate that nonlinear interactions exist between the annual cycles of temperature and its anomalies. Knowledge of the spatiotemporal behaviour of these long-term memories can be used in the building of stochastic models that only use persistence. It is possible to propose two objective forecast models based on linear interactions associated with persistence and one that allows for the use of information from nonlinear interactions that are manifested in the form of forerunners. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

Registro:

Documento: Artículo
Título:Persistence and long-term memories of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in southern South America
Autor:Naumann, G.; Vargas, W.M.; Minetti, J.L.
Filiación:National Scientific and Technological Research Council (CONICET), Buenos Aires, Argentina
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Faculty of Sciences, University of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Universidad Nacional de Tucumán (UNT), San Miguel de Tucumán, Argentina
F.C.E. y N. Universidad de Buenos Aires, Intendente Güiraldes 2160-Pab II, 2nd floor, Buenos Aires C1428EGA, Argentina
Palabras clave:air temperature; spatiotemporal analysis; spring (season); stochasticity; temperature anomaly; winter; Patagonia
Año:2011
Volumen:105
Número:3
Página de inicio:341
Página de fin:355
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0395-3
Título revista:Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Título revista abreviado:Theor. Appl. Climatol.
ISSN:0177798X
Registro:https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_0177798X_v105_n3_p341_Naumann

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Citas:

---------- APA ----------
Naumann, G., Vargas, W.M. & Minetti, J.L. (2011) . Persistence and long-term memories of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in southern South America. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 105(3), 341-355.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0395-3
---------- CHICAGO ----------
Naumann, G., Vargas, W.M., Minetti, J.L. "Persistence and long-term memories of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in southern South America" . Theoretical and Applied Climatology 105, no. 3 (2011) : 341-355.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0395-3
---------- MLA ----------
Naumann, G., Vargas, W.M., Minetti, J.L. "Persistence and long-term memories of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in southern South America" . Theoretical and Applied Climatology, vol. 105, no. 3, 2011, pp. 341-355.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0395-3
---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Naumann, G., Vargas, W.M., Minetti, J.L. Persistence and long-term memories of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in southern South America. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2011;105(3):341-355.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0395-3