Navegar

Colección

Datos Estadísticas

Artículo

Estamos trabajando para incorporar este artículo al repositorio
Consulte el artículo en la página del editor
Consulte la política de Acceso Abierto del editor

Abstract:

This study addresses the dry spells observed in the La Plata Basin using daily data from 94 observation stations during sampling periods from 1900 to 2005. Dry days were defined as having less than 0.3 mm of accumulated precipitation. This definition allowed for the assessment of the dryness in the La Plata Basin and a comparison with other regions. The main purpose of this study was to analyse dry spells, especially extreme cases (meteorological droughts), and assess them on a daily basis. Trends and low frequency of droughts were analysed using a general framework to detect and compare properties of dry states based on daily and annual time scales. The trends were estimated using two different methods. Overall, the trends showed a decrease, especially in the eastern basin region during the period of 1972-1996. The results showed sporadic decreases in dry events and events of extreme dryness (droughts). Spectral structure permits an inference of low-frequency maxima and confirmed an inter-annual 2- to 3-year period of variability in drought occurrence for most of the basin. Furthermore, probabilistic distribution functions of dry spells at basin stations were analysed to confirm that they followed a geometric-binomial distribution. Additional tests were used to determine whether there was a second threshold, using the Weibull and gamma adjustment models. In order to study spatial homogeneity, the field of dry spell maxima in the basin was generated using a vector array based on the occurrence date and length of the maximum spell. Due to the dependence of spell length on the annual cycle, the longest spells were observed from April to the beginning of winter in the Argentine northwest region and in the northern and western regions of the basin. The intensity of droughts decreased in the Pampas and Mesopotamia regions. The drought of 1988 was considered to be the longest dry spell in the basin. The water deficits from this drought resulted in Argentinean economic losses of more than four billion US dollars during 1988. © 2010 Springer-Verlag.

Registro:

Documento: Artículo
Título:Dry spells in the River Plata Basin: An approximation of the diagnosis of droughts using daily data
Autor:Vargas, W.M.; Naumann, G.; Minetti, J.L.
Filiación:National Scientific and Technological Research Council (CONICET), Buenos Aires, Argentina
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Faculty of Sciences, University of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Universidad Nacional de Tucumán (UNT), San Miguel de Tucumán, Argentina
F.C.E. y N., Universidad de Buenos Aires, Intendente Güiraldes 2160-Pab II, 2 piso, Buenos Aires C1428EGA, Argentina
Palabras clave:annual variation; climate effect; drought; economic impact; extreme event; frequency analysis; observational method; probability; spectral analysis; trend analysis; La Plata Basin
Año:2011
Volumen:104
Número:1-2
Página de inicio:159
Página de fin:173
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0335-2
Título revista:Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Título revista abreviado:Theor. Appl. Climatol.
ISSN:0177798X
Registro:https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_0177798X_v104_n1-2_p159_Vargas

Referencias:

  • Alessandro, A.P., Lichtenstein, E., Situación sinóptica asociada a la sequía del invierno de 1995 (1996) Rev Geofís, 45, pp. 125-143
  • Anderson, R.L., Bancroft, T., (1952) Statistical Theory in Research, , New York: McGraw Hill
  • (2000) Base de Dados Hidrologicos, , ANEEL: Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica, Available from Superintendencia de Estudos e informacoes Hidrologicas SGAN-Quadra 603-Modulo J. 1 andar, Brasilia/DF 70830-030
  • Barrucand, M.G., Vargas, W.M., Rusticucci, M.M., Dry conditions over Argentina and the related monthly circulation patterns (2007) Meteorol Atmos Phys, 98, pp. 99-114
  • Boulanger, J.P., Leloup, J., Penalba, O., Rusticucci, M., Lafon, F., Vargas, M., Observed precipitation in the Paraná-Plata hydrological basin: long term trends, extreme conditions and ENSO teleconnections (2005) Climate Dyn, 24, pp. 393-413
  • Caskey, J.E., A Markov chain model for the probability of precipitation occurrence in intervals of various length (1963) Mon Weather Rev, 91, pp. 298-301
  • Chatfield, C., (1980) The Analysis of Time Series: An Introduction, , London: Chapman and Hall
  • Dai, A., Trenberth, K.E., Karl, T.R., Global variations in droughts and wet spells: 1900-1995 (1998) Geophys Res Lett, 25 (17), pp. 3367-3370
  • Feyerherm, A.M., Bark, L.D., Statistical methods for persistent precipitation patterns (1965) J Appl Meteorol, 4, pp. 320-328
  • Feyerherm, A.M., Bark, L.D., Goodness of fit of a Markov chain model for sequences of wet and dry days (1967) J Appl Meteorol, 6, pp. 770-773
  • Fowler, A., Adams, K., Twentieth century droughts and wet periods in Auckland (New Zealand) and their relationship to ENSO (2004) Int J Climatol, 24 (15), pp. 1947-1961
  • Gabriel, K.R., Neumann, J., A Markov chain model for daily rainfall occurrence at Tel-Aviv (1962) Quart J R Met Soc, 88, pp. 90-95
  • Gibbs, W.J., (1975) Drought-its definition, delineation and effects, , Special Environmental. Report no. 5. 11-39. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
  • Gong, D.-Y., Wang, J.-A., Han, H., Trends of summer dry spells in China during the late twentieth century (2005) Meteorol Atmos Phys, 88 (3-4), pp. 203-214
  • Gringorten, I.I., Modelling conditional probability (1971) J Appl Meteorol, 10, pp. 646-657
  • Heim, R., A review of twentieth-century drought indices used in the United States (2002) Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 83 (8), pp. 1149-1165
  • Labraga, J.C., Scian, B., Frumento, O., Anomalies in the circulation associated with the rainfall excess or deficit in the Pampa region in Argentina (2002) J Geophys Res, 107, pp. D23. , doi:10.1029/2002JD002113
  • Llano, M., Penalba, O., A climatic analysis of dry sequences in Argentina (2010) Int J Climatol, , doi:10.1002/joc.2092
  • Longley, R.W., The length of dry and wet periods (1953) Q J R Meteorol Soc, 79, p. 520
  • Malaka, I., (1987) Aspectos Sinópticos de las anomalías de precipitación ocurridas durante los meses octubre a enero 1985/86, , Anales del II Congreso Interamericano de Meteorología y V Congreso Argentino de Meteorología. Buenos Aires 30 de noviembre al 4 de diciembre de 1987, 6. 1. 1-6. 1. 5
  • Malaka, I., Núñez, S., Aspectos sinópticos de la sequía que afectó a la República Argentina en el año 1982 (1980) Geoacta, 10 (2), pp. 1-21
  • Maronna, R., Yohai, V.J., A bivariate test for detection of systematic change in mean (1978) J Am Stat Assoc, 73, pp. 640-645
  • Minetti, J.L., (2005) El Clima Del Noroeste Argentino, p. 449. , San Miguel de Tucumán: Magna
  • Minetti, J.L., Vargas, W.M., El enfriamiento de la década de 1950 en la República Argentina (1983) Meteorológica, XIV (1-2), pp. 175-188
  • Minetti, J.L., Naumann, G., Vargas, W.M., Poblete, G., Las sequías en el largo plazo en argentina y sus precursores invernales (2008) Rev Geogr, 12, pp. 1-10
  • Minetti, J.L., Vargas, W.M., Poblete, A.G., de la Zerda, L.R., Acuña, L.R., Regional droughts in southern South America (2010) Theor Appl Climatol, , doi:10.1007/s00704-010-0271-1
  • Mo, K.C., Paegle, J.N., Higgins, R.W., Atmospheric processes associated with summer floods and droughts in the central United States (1997) J Climate, 10, pp. 3028-3046
  • Naumann, G., Vargas, W., Minetti, J.L., Dry spells in the La Plata Basin. Monitoring and trend stability. Drought implication (2008) Meteorologica, 33, pp. 61-85
  • Penalba, O., Vargas, W., Propiedades de déficits y excesos de precipitación en zonas agropecuarias (2001) Meteorologica, 26, pp. 39-55
  • Penalba, O., Vargas, W., Variability of low monthly rainfall in La Plata Basin (2008) Meteorol Appl, 15, pp. 313-323
  • Ropelewski, C.F., Halper, M., Quantifying Southern Oscillation-precipitation relationships (1996) J Climate, 9 (12), pp. 1043-1059
  • Scargle, J.D., Studies in astronomical time series analysis. II-statistical aspects of spectral analysis of unevenly spaced data (1982) Astrophys J, Part 1, 263, pp. 835-853
  • Sidney, S., (1956) Nonparametrics Statistics for the Behavioral Sciences, , New York: McGraw-Hill
  • Silvestri, G., El Niño signal variability in the precipitation over southeastern South America during austral summer (2004) Geophys Res Lett, 31, pp. L18206. , doi:10.1029/2004GL020590
  • Silvestri, G.E., Comparison between winter precipitation in southeastern South America during each ENSO phase (2005) Geophys Res Lett, 32, pp. L05709. , doi:10.1029/2004GL021749
  • Sneyers, R., (1975) Sur L' Analyse Statistique des séries d'observations OMM *415
  • Trenberth, K.E., Branstator, G.W., Arkin, P.A., Origins of the 1988 North American drought (1988) Science, 242, pp. 1640-1645
  • Vargas, W.M., Nuñez, M.N., El Clima y aspectos económicos (1991) Bol Inf-Organ Techint No, 263, p. 17
  • Wilks, D.S., (2006) Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, p. 627. , New York: Academic
  • Williams, C.B., Sequences of wet and of dry days considered in relation to the logarithmic series (1952) Q J R Meteorol Soc, 78 (335), pp. 91-96. , doi:10.1002/qj.49707833514
  • (1994) Guide to hydrological practices, , WMO, WMO technical note n° 168

Citas:

---------- APA ----------
Vargas, W.M., Naumann, G. & Minetti, J.L. (2011) . Dry spells in the River Plata Basin: An approximation of the diagnosis of droughts using daily data. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 104(1-2), 159-173.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0335-2
---------- CHICAGO ----------
Vargas, W.M., Naumann, G., Minetti, J.L. "Dry spells in the River Plata Basin: An approximation of the diagnosis of droughts using daily data" . Theoretical and Applied Climatology 104, no. 1-2 (2011) : 159-173.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0335-2
---------- MLA ----------
Vargas, W.M., Naumann, G., Minetti, J.L. "Dry spells in the River Plata Basin: An approximation of the diagnosis of droughts using daily data" . Theoretical and Applied Climatology, vol. 104, no. 1-2, 2011, pp. 159-173.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0335-2
---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Vargas, W.M., Naumann, G., Minetti, J.L. Dry spells in the River Plata Basin: An approximation of the diagnosis of droughts using daily data. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2011;104(1-2):159-173.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0335-2