Estamos trabajando para incorporar este artículo al repositorio
Consulte el artículo en la página del editor
Consulte la política de Acceso Abierto del editor


This invited review paper tends to summarise the results based on the variability of occurrence of temperature extremes in South America. The first thing to note is that there is a geographical imbalance with respect to the number of published studies on temperature extremes. Most of the results come from the southern part of South America, east of the Andes, and a few from the northern part of the continent and for the Altiplano. The workshop organised by the ETCCDMI in Brazil was the first time to have the opportunity to collect information in a regional way and present trends in extreme daily temperatures. A better geographical picture enhanced with more data show significant geographical trends in warm (positive) and cold (negative) nights over Southern South America and over the northern South America coast. All other studies based on smaller regions also agree in finding the most significant trends in the evolution of the minimum temperature, with positive trends in almost all studies on the occurrence of warm nights (or hot extremes of minimum temperature) and negative trend in the cold extremes of the minimum. On the other hand, there is little agreement on the variability of maximum temperature. Generally the maximum temperature in southern South America has decreased, in opposition to the case of northern South America where it has increased. Strong decadal and interannual variability have been found in the occurrence of cold extremes. Reanalysis and climate models underestimate the intensity of extremes, mainly near the Andes. The studies trying to understand the dynamics of the circulation that leads to the occurrence of these extremes are analysed from its occurrence in almost all scales from the synoptic, intraseasonal, seasonal, annual, and multi-year linear trend with different methodologies, also, indentifying the local and remote forcing. A gap was found in studies that relate some specific local forcing (like changes in land use) and compare it with the remote ones. Different aspects of the occurrence of the temperature extremes are still missing in some regions of the continent. © 2011 Elsevier B.V..


Documento: Artículo
Título:Observed and simulated variability of extreme temperature events over South America
Autor:Rusticucci, M.
Filiación:Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Intendente Güiraldes 2160, Ciudad Universitaria Pab II, (1428) Buenos Aires, Argentina
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Tecnológicas (CONICET), Argentina
Palabras clave:Climate change; South America; Temperature extremes; Daily temperatures; Extreme temperatures; Geographical trends; Indentifying; Interannual variability; Local forcing; Maximum temperature; Reanalysis; Remote forcing; South America; Still missing; Temperature extremes; Warm nights; Climate change; Climate models; air temperature; annual variation; climate change; climate forcing; climate modeling; computer simulation; decadal variation; extreme event; observational method; regional climate; trend analysis; Altiplano; Andes; Brazil
Página de inicio:1
Página de fin:17
Título revista:Atmospheric Research
Título revista abreviado:Atmos. Res.


  • Alexander, L., Zhang, X., Peterson, T.C., Caesar, J., Gleason, B., Klein Tank, A., Haylock, M., Vazquez-Aguirre, J.L., Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation (2006) J. Geophys. Res., 111, pp. D05109
  • Ambrizzi, T., Bernardez Pezza, A., Cold waves and the propagation of extratropical cyclones and anticyclones in South America: a synoptic-climatological overview (1999) Rev. Geofis., 51, pp. 45-67. , 1999
  • Astolpho, F., De Camargo, M.B.P., Bardin, L., Probabilidades mensais e anuais de ocorrência de temperaturas mínimas do ar adversas à agricultura na região de Campinas (SP), de 1891 a 2000 (2004) Bragantia, 63 (1), pp. 141-147
  • Astolpho, F., De Camargo, M.B.P., Pedro, M.J., Pallone Filho, W.J., Bardin, L., Regionalização de riscos de ocorrência de temperaturas mínimas absolutas anuais para o estado de São Paulo com base em modelos probabilísticos e digitais de elevação (2005) Bragantia, 64 (1), pp. 139-148
  • Barros, V., Scasso, L., Surface pressure and temperature anomalies in Argentina in connection with the southern oscillation (1994) Atmosfera, 7, pp. 159-171
  • Barrucand, M., Rusticucci, M., Vargas, W., Temperature extremes in the south of South America in relation to Atlantic Ocean surface temperature and Southern Hemisphere circulation (2008) J. Geophys. Res., 113, pp. D20111
  • Campetella, C., Rusticucci, M., Synoptic analysis of an extreme heat wave over Argentina in March 1980 (1998) Meteorol. Appl., 5, pp. 217-226. , N.3
  • Cerne, S.B., Rusticucci, M., Estudio de la situación sinóptica asociada con la ola de frío de febrero de 1996 (1997) Meteorológica, 22 (2), pp. 5-18
  • Cerne, S.B., Vera, C.S., Influence of the intraseasonal variability on heat waves in subtropical South America (2010) Clim. Dyn., pp. 1-13
  • Cerne, S.B., Vera, C.S., Liebmann, B., The nature of a heat wave in eastern Argentina occuring during SALLJEX (2007) Mon.Wea.Rev., 135 (3), pp. 1165-1174
  • Compagnucci, R., Salles, M., Surface pressure patterns during the year over Southern South America (1997) Int. J. Climatol., 17, pp. 635-653
  • Escobar, G., Compagnucci, R., Bischoff, S., Sequence patterns of 1000hPa and 500hPa geopotential height fields associated with cold surges over Central Argentina (2004) Atmosfera, 17 (2), pp. 69-89. , 1 April 2004
  • Frich, P., Alexander, L.V., Della-Marta, P., Gleason, B., Haylock, M., Klein Tank, A.M.G., Peterson, T., Observed coherent change in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century (2002) Clim. Res., 19, pp. 193-212
  • Garreaud, R., Cold air incursions over subtropical South America: a numerical case study (1999) Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, pp. 2823-2853
  • Garreaud, R., Cold air incursions over subtropical South America: mean structure and dynamics (2000) Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, pp. 2544-2559
  • Grimm, A., Barros, V., Doyle, M., Climate variability in southern South America associated with El Niño and La Niña events (2000) J. Clim., 13, pp. 35-58
  • Hoffmann, J.A.J., Núñez, S.E., Vargas, W.M., Temperature, humidity and precipitation variations in Argentina and the adjacent sub-Antarctic region during the present century (1997) Meteorol. Z., 6 (1), pp. 3-11. , 18
  • Kousky, V., Cavalcanti, I., The principal modes of high frequency variability over the South American region (1997) South Africa, pp. 226-227. , April 1997, 5th Int. Conf. on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography, AMS, Pretoria
  • Lupo, A.R., Nocera, J.J., Bosart, L.F., Hoffman, E.G., Knight, D.J., South American cold surges: types, composites, and case studies (2001) Mon. Wea. Rev., 129 (5), pp. 1021-1041
  • Marengo, J., Mudanças climáticas globais e regionais: Avaliação do clima atual do Brasil e projeções de cenários climáticos do futuro (2001) Rev. Bras. Meteor., 16, pp. 1-18
  • Marengo, J., Condições climáticas e recursos hídricos no Norte Brasileiro (2003) Clima e Recursos Hídricos no Brasil, pp. 117-161. , Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos FBMC/ANA, C.E. Tucci nd, B. Braga (Eds.)
  • Marengo, J.A., Ambrizzi, T., Kiladis, G., Liebmann, B., Upper-air wave trains over the Pacific Ocean and wintertime cold surges in tropical-subtropical South America leading to freezes in Southern and Southeastern Brazil (2002) Theor. Appl. Climatol., 73 (3-4), pp. 223-242
  • Marengo, J.M., Penalba, R.M., Renom, M., An intercomparison of observed and simulated extreme rainfall and temperature events during the last half of the twentieth century: part 2: historical trends (2010) Clim. Chang., 98 (3), pp. 509-529
  • Müller Patterns leading to extreme events in Argentina: partial and generalized frosts (2007) Int. J. Climatol., 27 (10), pp. 1373-1387
  • Müller, G.V., Temperature decrease in the extratropics of South America in response to a tropical forcing during the austral winter (2010) Ann. Geophys., 28 (1), pp. 1-9
  • Müller, G.V., Ambrizzi, T., Teleconnection patterns and Rossby wave propagation associated to generalized frosts over southern South America (2007) Clim. Dyn., 29 (6), pp. 633-645
  • Müller, G.V., Berri, G.J., Atmospheric circulation associated with persistent generalized frosts in Central-Southern South America (2007) Mon. Wea. Rev., 135 (4), pp. 1268-1289
  • Müller, G., Nuñez, M., Seluchi, M., Relationship between ENSO cycles and frost events within the Pampa Húmeda region (2000) Int. J. Climatol., 20, pp. 19-1637
  • Naumann, G., Vargas, W.M., Joint diagnostic of the surface air temperature in southern South America and the Madden-Julian oscillation (2010) Weather. Forecast., 25 (4), pp. 1275-1280
  • Naumann, G., Vargas, W.M., Minetti, J.L., Persistence and long-term memories of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in southern South America (2011) Theor. Appl. Climatol., 105 (3), pp. 341-355
  • Petrone, R.M., Rouse, W.R., Tropical-midlatitude exchange of air masses during summer and winter in South America: climatic aspects and examples of intense events (2000) Int. J. Climatol., 20 (10), pp. 1167-1190
  • Pezza, A.B., Ambrizzi, T., Dynamical conditions and synoptic tracks associated with different types of cold surge over tropical South America (2005) Int. J. Climatol., 25 (2), pp. 215-241
  • Prela-Pantano, A., De Souza Rolim, G., De Camargo, M.B.P., Probabilidade de ocorrência de temperaturas mínimas menores que 5°C na região do médio paranapanema (2009) Bragantia, 68 (1), pp. 279-284
  • Quintana-Gomez, R.A., Trends in maximum and minimum temperatures in northern South America (1999) J. Clim., 12, pp. 2104-2112
  • Renom, M., Rusticucci, M., Barreiro, M., Multidecadal changes in the relationship between extreme temperature events in Uruguay and the general atmospheric circulation (2011) Climate Dynamics, 37 (11-12), pp. 2471-2480
  • Ronchail, J., Advection polaires en Bolivie: mise en évidence et caractérisation des effects climatiques (1989) Hydrol. Cont., 4, pp. 49-56
  • Rusticucci, M., Barrucand, M., Observed trends and changes in temperature extremes over Argentina (2004) J. Clim., 17, pp. 4099-4107
  • Rusticucci, M., Kousky, V.E., A comparative study of maximum and minimum temperatures over Argentina: NCEP-NCAR reanalysis versus station data (2002) J. Clim., 15, pp. 2089-2101
  • Rusticucci, M., Renom, M., Variability and trends in indices of quality controlled daily temperature extremes in Uruguay (2008) Int. J. Climatol., 28 (8), pp. 1083-1095
  • Rusticucci, M., Tencer, B., Observed changes in return values of annual temperature extremes over Argentina (2008) J. Clim., 21, pp. 5455-5467
  • Rusticucci, M., Vargas, W., Synoptic situations related to spells of extreme temperatures over Argentina (1995) Meteorol. Appl., 2, pp. 291-300. , Part 4
  • Rusticucci, M., Vargas, W., Interannual variability of temperature spells over Argentina (2001) Atmósfera, 14, pp. 75-86. , Numero 2
  • Rusticucci, M., Vargas, W., Cold and warm events over Argentina and their relationship with the ENSO phases: risk evaluation analysis (2002) Int. J. Climatol., 22, pp. 467-483
  • Rusticucci, M.S., Venegas, A., Vargas, W.M., Warm and cold events in Argentina and their relationship with South Atlantic and South Pacific sea surface temperature (2003) J. Geophys. Res., 108, p. 3356
  • Rusticucci, Marengo, M.J., Penalba, O., Renom, M., An intercomparison of model-simulated in extreme rainfall and temperature events during the last half of twentieth century. Part 1: mean values and variability (2010) Clim. Chang., 98 (3), pp. 493-508
  • Sansigolo, C.A., Kayano, M.T., Trends of seasonal maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation in Southern Brazil for the 1913-2006 period (2010) Theor. Appl. Climatol., 101 (1-2), pp. 209-216
  • Sansigolo, C., Rodriguez, R., Etchichury, P., Tendencias nas temperaturas medias do Brasil (1992) Brasileiro de Meteorologia, 1, pp. 367-371. , Congresso Brasileiro de Meteorologia, Sao Paulo, Brazil
  • Scian, B., Situación sinóptica asociada a las temperaturas extremas observadas en Junio 67 (1970) Meteorológica, 1, pp. 22-37
  • Sura, P., A general perspective of extreme events in weather and climate (2011) Atmos. Res., 101 (1-2), pp. 1-21
  • Tencer, B., Rusticucci, M., Jones, P.D., Lister, D., A southwestern South American daily gridded data set of observed surface minimum and maximum surface temperature for 1960-2000 (2011) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 92 (10), pp. 1339-1346
  • Thibeault, J.M., Seth, A., Garcia, M., Changing climate in the Bolivian Altiplano: CMIP3 projections for temperature and precipitation extremes (2010) J. Geophys. Res., 115 (8)
  • Trasmonte, G., Chavez, R., Segura, B., Rosales, J.L., Frost risks in the Mantaro river basin (2008) Adv. Geosci., 14, pp. 265-270
  • Vargas, W.M., Naumann, G., Impacts of climatic change and low frequency variability in reference series on daily maximum and minimum temperature in southern South America (2008) Reg. Environ. Chang., 8 (2), pp. 45-57
  • Vera, C.S., Vigliarolo, P.K., A diagnostic study of cold-air outbreaks over South America (2000) Mon. Wea. Rev., 128 (1), pp. 3-24
  • Vincent, L.A., Peterson, T.C., Barros, V.R., Marino, M.B., Rusticucci, M., Carrasco, G., Ramirez, E., Karoly, D., Observed trends in indices of daily temperature extremes in South America 1960-2000 (2005) J. Clim., 18, pp. 5011-5023
  • Zazulie, N., Rusticucci, M., Solomon, S., Changes in Antarctic climate: a unique daily record at Orcadas spanning 1903-2008 (2010) J. Clim., 23, pp. 189-196


---------- APA ----------
(2012) . Observed and simulated variability of extreme temperature events over South America. Atmospheric Research, 106, 1-17.
---------- CHICAGO ----------
Rusticucci, M. "Observed and simulated variability of extreme temperature events over South America" . Atmospheric Research 106 (2012) : 1-17.
---------- MLA ----------
Rusticucci, M. "Observed and simulated variability of extreme temperature events over South America" . Atmospheric Research, vol. 106, 2012, pp. 1-17.
---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Rusticucci, M. Observed and simulated variability of extreme temperature events over South America. Atmos. Res. 2012;106:1-17.