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Abstract:

We analyze historical simulations of variability in temperature and rainfall extremes in the twentieth century, as derived from various global models run informing the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4). On the basis of three indices of climate extremes, we compare observed and modeled trends in time and space, including the direction and significance of the changes at the scale of South America south of 10° S. The climate extremes described warm nights, heavy rainfall amounts and dry spells. The reliability of the GCM simulations is suggested by similarity between observations and simulations in the case of warm nights and extreme rainfall in some regions. For any specific extreme temperature index, minor differences appear in the spatial distribution of the changes across models in some regions, while substantial differences appear in regions in the interior of tropical and subtropical South America. The differences are in the relative magnitude of the trends. Consensus and significance are less strong when regional patterns are considered, with the exception of the La Plata Basin, where observed and simulated trends in warm nights and extreme rainfall are evident. © Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2009.

Registro:

Documento: Artículo
Título:An intercomparison of observed and simulated extreme rainfall and temperature events during the last half of the twentieth century: Part 2: Historical trends
Autor:Marengo, J.A.; Rusticucci, M.; Penalba, O.; Renom, M.
Filiación:Centro de Ciências do Sistema Terra, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Rodovia Dutra km 40, 12630-000 Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo, Brazil
Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, FCEN Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera, UBA/CONICET, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Unidad Ciencias de la Atmósfera FCIEN, Universidad de la Republica, Montevideo, Uruguay
Palabras clave:Dry spells; Extreme rainfall; Extreme temperature indices; Global models; Heavy rainfall; Historical simulation; Historical trends; Intercomparisons; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes; La Plata basin; Rainfall extremes; Regional pattern; South America; Spatial distribution; Time and space; Twentieth century; Warm nights; Climate models; Rain; Size distribution; Climate change; climate modeling; extreme event; historical record; precipitation intensity; spatial distribution; temperature profile; trend analysis; twentieth century; South America
Año:2010
Volumen:98
Número:3
Página de inicio:509
Página de fin:529
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9743-7
Título revista:Climatic Change
Título revista abreviado:Clim. Change
ISSN:01650009
CODEN:CLCHD
Registro:https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_01650009_v98_n3_p509_Marengo

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Citas:

---------- APA ----------
Marengo, J.A., Rusticucci, M., Penalba, O. & Renom, M. (2010) . An intercomparison of observed and simulated extreme rainfall and temperature events during the last half of the twentieth century: Part 2: Historical trends. Climatic Change, 98(3), 509-529.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9743-7
---------- CHICAGO ----------
Marengo, J.A., Rusticucci, M., Penalba, O., Renom, M. "An intercomparison of observed and simulated extreme rainfall and temperature events during the last half of the twentieth century: Part 2: Historical trends" . Climatic Change 98, no. 3 (2010) : 509-529.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9743-7
---------- MLA ----------
Marengo, J.A., Rusticucci, M., Penalba, O., Renom, M. "An intercomparison of observed and simulated extreme rainfall and temperature events during the last half of the twentieth century: Part 2: Historical trends" . Climatic Change, vol. 98, no. 3, 2010, pp. 509-529.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9743-7
---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Marengo, J.A., Rusticucci, M., Penalba, O., Renom, M. An intercomparison of observed and simulated extreme rainfall and temperature events during the last half of the twentieth century: Part 2: Historical trends. Clim. Change. 2010;98(3):509-529.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9743-7