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Abstract:

Dynamical downscaling of global climate simulations is the most adequate tool to generate regional projections of climate change. This technique involves at least a present climate simulation and a simulation of a future scenario, usually at the end of the twenty first century. However, regional projections for a variety of scenarios and periods, the 2020s or the 2050s, are often required by the impact community. The pattern scaling technique is used to estimate information on climate change for periods and scenarios not simulated by the regional model. We based our study on regional simulations performed over southern South America for present climate conditions and two emission scenarios at the end of the twenty first century. We used the pattern scaling technique to estimate mean seasonal changes of temperature and precipitation for the 2020s and the 2050s. The validity of the scalability assumptions underlying the pattern scaling technique for estimating near future regional climate change scenarios over southern South America is assessed. The results show that the pattern scaling works well for estimating mean temperature changes for which the regional changes are linearly related to the global mean temperature changes. For precipitation changes, the validity of the scalability assumption is weaker. The errors of estimating precipitation changes are comparable to those inherent to the regional model and to the projected changes themselves. © Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2009.

Registro:

Documento: Artículo
Título:Creating regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for the 2020's and 2050's using the pattern scaling technique: Validity and limitations
Autor:Cabré, M.F.; Solman, S.A.; Nuñez, M.N.
Filiación:Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA-CONICET/UBA), Ciudad Universitaria Pabellón II, Piso 2 (1428), Buenos Aires, Argentina
Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA-CONICET/UBA), Dto. Cs. Atmósfera y los Océanos (DCAO-FCEyN. UBA), Ciudad Universitaria Pabellón II, Piso 2 (1428), Buenos Aires, Argentina
Palabras clave:Climate condition; Climate simulation; Dynamical downscaling; Emission scenario; Global climate simulations; Global-mean temperature; Mean temperature; Precipitation change; Regional climate changes; Regional model; Seasonal changes; South America; Climate models; Estimation; Scalability; Climate change; climate change; downscaling; precipitation (climatology); regional climate; seasonal variation; simulation; temperature effect; twenty first century; South America
Año:2010
Volumen:98
Número:3
Página de inicio:449
Página de fin:469
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9737-5
Título revista:Climatic Change
Título revista abreviado:Clim. Change
ISSN:01650009
CODEN:CLCHD
Registro:https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_01650009_v98_n3_p449_Cabre

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Citas:

---------- APA ----------
Cabré, M.F., Solman, S.A. & Nuñez, M.N. (2010) . Creating regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for the 2020's and 2050's using the pattern scaling technique: Validity and limitations. Climatic Change, 98(3), 449-469.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9737-5
---------- CHICAGO ----------
Cabré, M.F., Solman, S.A., Nuñez, M.N. "Creating regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for the 2020's and 2050's using the pattern scaling technique: Validity and limitations" . Climatic Change 98, no. 3 (2010) : 449-469.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9737-5
---------- MLA ----------
Cabré, M.F., Solman, S.A., Nuñez, M.N. "Creating regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for the 2020's and 2050's using the pattern scaling technique: Validity and limitations" . Climatic Change, vol. 98, no. 3, 2010, pp. 449-469.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9737-5
---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Cabré, M.F., Solman, S.A., Nuñez, M.N. Creating regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for the 2020's and 2050's using the pattern scaling technique: Validity and limitations. Clim. Change. 2010;98(3):449-469.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9737-5