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Abstract:

During the warm season 2002-2003, the South American Low-Level Jet Experiment (SALLJEX) was carried out in southeastern South America. Taking advantage of the unique database collected in the region, a set of analyses is generated for the SALLJEX period assimilating all available data. The spatial and temporal resolution of this new set of analyses is higher than that of analyses available up to present for southeastern South America. The aim of this paper is to determine the impact of assimilating data into initial fields on mesoscale forecasts in the region, using the Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) with particular emphasis on the South American Low-Level Jet (SALLJ) structure and on rainfall forecasts. For most variables, using analyses with data assimilated as initial fields has positive effects on short term forecast. Such effect is greater in wind variables, but not significant in forecasts longer than 24 hours. In particular, data assimilation does not improve forecasts of 24-hour accumulated rainfall, but it has slight positive effects on accumulated rainfall between 6 and 12 forecast hours. As the main focus is on the representation of the SALLJ, the effect of data assimilation in its forecast was explored. Results show that SALLJ is fairly predictable however assimilating additional observation data has small impact on the forecast of SALLJ timing and intensity. The strength of the SALLJ is underestimated independently of data assimilation. However, Root mean square error (RMSE) and BIAS values reveal the positive effect of data assimilation up to 18-hours forecasts with a greater impact near higher topography.

Registro:

Documento: Artículo
Título:Impact of enriched analyses on regional numerical forecasts over Southeastern South America during salljex
Autor:García Skabar, Y.; Nicolini, M.
Filiación:Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, Buenos Aires, Argentina
CONICET, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Instituto Franco Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos (UMI), Buenos Aires, Argentina
Universidad de Buenos Aires (UBA), Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera, CONICET, UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Palabras clave:Data assimilation; Numerical forecasts; SALLJEX
Año:2014
Volumen:29
Número:3
Página de inicio:315
Página de fin:330
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0102-778620100248
Título revista:Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia
Título revista abreviado:Rev. Bras. Meteorologia
ISSN:01027786
Registro:https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_01027786_v29_n3_p315_GarciaSkabar

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Citas:

---------- APA ----------
García Skabar, Y. & Nicolini, M. (2014) . Impact of enriched analyses on regional numerical forecasts over Southeastern South America during salljex . Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, 29(3), 315-330.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0102-778620100248
---------- CHICAGO ----------
García Skabar, Y., Nicolini, M. "Impact of enriched analyses on regional numerical forecasts over Southeastern South America during salljex " . Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia 29, no. 3 (2014) : 315-330.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0102-778620100248
---------- MLA ----------
García Skabar, Y., Nicolini, M. "Impact of enriched analyses on regional numerical forecasts over Southeastern South America during salljex " . Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, vol. 29, no. 3, 2014, pp. 315-330.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0102-778620100248
---------- VANCOUVER ----------
García Skabar, Y., Nicolini, M. Impact of enriched analyses on regional numerical forecasts over Southeastern South America during salljex . Rev. Bras. Meteorologia. 2014;29(3):315-330.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0102-778620100248