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Abstract:

We develop a stochastic spatial model for Aedes aegypti populations based on the life cycle of the mosquito and its dispersal. Our validation corresponds to a monitoring study performed in Buenos Aires. Lacking information with regard to the number of breeding sites per block, the corresponding parameter (BS) was adjusted to the data. The model is able to produce numerical data in very good agreement with field results during most of the year, the exception being the fall season. Possible causes of the disagreement are discussed. We analyzed the mosquito dispersal as an advantageous strategy of persistence in the city and simulated the dispersal of females from a source to the surroundings along a 3-year period observing that several processes occur simultaneously: local extinctions, recolonization processes (resulting from flight and the oviposition performed by flyers), and colonization processes resulting from the persistence of eggs during the winter season. In view of this process, we suggest that eradication campaigns in temperate climates should be performed during the winter time for higher efficiency. © 2008 Society for Mathematical Biology.

Registro:

Documento: Artículo
Título:A stochastic spatial dynamical model for Aedes aegypti
Autor:Otero, M.; Schweigmann, N.; Solari, H.G.
Filiación:Department of Physics, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Department of Genetics and Ecology, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Palabras clave:Aedes aegypti; Aedes aegypti dispersal; Dengue epidemics; Mathematical ecology; Population dynamics; Spatial model; Stochastic model; Temperate climate; Aedes; algorithm; animal; Argentina; article; biological model; city; computer simulation; dengue; egg laying; environment; female; physiology; population dynamics; season; statistics; weather; Aedes; Algorithms; Animals; Argentina; Cities; Computer Simulation; Dengue; Environment; Female; Models, Biological; Oviposition; Population Dynamics; Seasons; Stochastic Processes; Weather; Aedes aegypti
Año:2008
Volumen:70
Número:5
Página de inicio:1297
Página de fin:1325
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-008-9300-y
Título revista:Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
Título revista abreviado:Bull. Math. Biol.
ISSN:00928240
CODEN:BMTBA
Registro:https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_00928240_v70_n5_p1297_Otero

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Citas:

---------- APA ----------
Otero, M., Schweigmann, N. & Solari, H.G. (2008) . A stochastic spatial dynamical model for Aedes aegypti. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 70(5), 1297-1325.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-008-9300-y
---------- CHICAGO ----------
Otero, M., Schweigmann, N., Solari, H.G. "A stochastic spatial dynamical model for Aedes aegypti" . Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 70, no. 5 (2008) : 1297-1325.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-008-9300-y
---------- MLA ----------
Otero, M., Schweigmann, N., Solari, H.G. "A stochastic spatial dynamical model for Aedes aegypti" . Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, vol. 70, no. 5, 2008, pp. 1297-1325.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-008-9300-y
---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Otero, M., Schweigmann, N., Solari, H.G. A stochastic spatial dynamical model for Aedes aegypti. Bull. Math. Biol. 2008;70(5):1297-1325.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-008-9300-y