Navegar

Colección

Datos Estadísticas

Artículo

La versión final de este artículo es de uso interno. El editor solo permite incluir en el repositorio el artículo en su versión post-print. Por favor, si usted la posee enviela a
Consulte el artículo en la página del editor
Consulte la política de Acceso Abierto del editor

Abstract:

A non-linear coupling function between sunspot maxima and aa minima modulations has been found as a result of a wavelet analysis of geomagnetic index aa and Wolf sunspot number yearly means since 1844. It has been demonstrated that the increase of these modulations for the past 158 years has not been steady, instead, it has occurred in less than 30 years starting around 1923. Otherwise sunspot maxima have oscillated about a constant level of 90 and 141, prior to 1923 and after 1949, respectively. The relevance of these findings regarding the forecasting of solar activity is analyzed here. It is found that if sunspot cycle maxima were still oscillating around the 141 constant value, then the Gnevyshev-Ohl rule would be violated for two consecutive even-odd sunspot pairs (22-23 and 24-25) for the first time in 1700 years. Instead, we present evidence that solar activity is in a declining episode that started about 1993. A value for maximum sunspot number in solar cycle 24 (87.5 ± 23.5) is estimated from our results.

Registro:

Documento: Artículo
Título:An early prediction of maximum sunspot number in solar cycle 24
Autor:Duhau, S.
Filiación:Departamento de Física, Fac. de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina
Año:2003
Volumen:213
Número:1
Página de inicio:203
Página de fin:212
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1023260916825
Título revista:Solar Physics
Título revista abreviado:Sol. Phys.
ISSN:00380938
Registro:https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_00380938_v213_n1_p203_Duhau

Referencias:

  • Antoine, J.P., (1999) Wavelet in Physics, p. 453. , J. C. Van der Berg (ed.) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
  • Babcock, H.W.J., (1961) Astrophys. J., 133, p. 572
  • Beer, J., Tovias, S., Weiss, N., (1998) Solar Phys., 181, p. 237
  • De Mayer, F., (1998) Solar Phys., 181, p. 201
  • Duhau, S., Chen, C.Y., (2000) Anales Asociación Física Argentina, 11, p. 321
  • Duhau, S., Chen, C.Y., (2002) Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, pp. 6-1
  • Duhau, S., Martinez, E.A., Hurtado de Mendoza, D., (1997) Actas 19a Reunion Cientifica de Geofisica y Geodesia, p. 86
  • Durney, B., (2000) Solar Phys., 196, p. 421
  • Eddy, J.A., (1976) Science, 192, p. 1189
  • Feynman, J., Gabriel, S., (1990) Solar Phys., 127, p. 393
  • Hoyt, D., Schatten, K.H., (1997) The Role of the Sun in Climate Change, p. 279. , Oxford University Press, Oxford
  • Gleissberg, W., (1966) J. British Astron. Soc., 76, p. 265
  • Gnevyshev, M.N., Ohl, A.I., (1948) Astron. Zh., 25, p. 18
  • Gregg, D.P., (1984) Solar Phys., 90, p. 185
  • Knobloch, E., Tobias, S.M., Weiss, N.O., (1998) Monthly Notices Royal Astron. Soc., 297, p. 1123
  • Komitov, B., Bonev, B., (2001) Atrophys. J., 554, pp. L119
  • Layden, A.C., Fox, P.A., Howard, J.M., Sarajedini, A., Schatten, K.H., Sofia, S., (1991) Solar Phys., 132, p. 1
  • Legrand, J.P., Simon, P.A., (1991) Solar Phys., 131, p. 187
  • Lockwood, M., Stamper, R., Wild, M.N., (1999) Nature, 399, p. 437
  • Lorenz, E., (1993) The Essence of Chaos, , University Washington Press, Washington
  • Nevanlinna, H., Kataja, E., (1993) Geophys. Res. Lett., 20, p. 2703
  • Oliver, R., Ballester, J.L., Baudin, F., (1998) Nature, 394, p. 552
  • Rioul, O., Vetterli, M., (1991) IEEE Signal Processing Magazine, p. 14
  • Russell, C.T., (1975) Solar Phys., 42, p. 259
  • Salakhutdinova, J.I., (1999) Solar Phys., 188, p. 377
  • Schatten, K.H., Scherrer, P.H., Svalgaard, L., Wilcox, J.M., (1978) Geophys. Res. Lett., 5, p. 411
  • Schove, D.J., (1955) J. Geophys. Res., 60, p. 127
  • Stuiver, M., Braziunas, T.F., (1988) Secular Solar and Geomagnetic Variations in the Last 10,000 Years, p. 245. , F. R. Stephenson and A. Wolfendale (eds.) Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht Holland
  • Torrence, C., Compo, G.P., (1998) Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 79, p. 61
  • Vennerstroem, S., (2000) Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, p. 69
  • Weiss, N.O., (1988) Secular Solar and Geomagnetic Variations in the Last 10,000 Years, p. 69. , F. R. Stephenson and A. Wolfendale (eds.) Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, Holland

Citas:

---------- APA ----------
(2003) . An early prediction of maximum sunspot number in solar cycle 24. Solar Physics, 213(1), 203-212.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1023260916825
---------- CHICAGO ----------
Duhau, S. "An early prediction of maximum sunspot number in solar cycle 24" . Solar Physics 213, no. 1 (2003) : 203-212.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1023260916825
---------- MLA ----------
Duhau, S. "An early prediction of maximum sunspot number in solar cycle 24" . Solar Physics, vol. 213, no. 1, 2003, pp. 203-212.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1023260916825
---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Duhau, S. An early prediction of maximum sunspot number in solar cycle 24. Sol. Phys. 2003;213(1):203-212.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1023260916825