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Abstract:

Transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi, the causal agent of Chagas disease, has expanded from rural endemic to urban areas due to migration. This so-called urban Chagas is an emerging health problem in American, European, Australian and Japanese cities. We present a mathematical model to analyse the dynamics of urban Chagas to better understand its epidemiology. The model considers the three clinical stages of the disease and the main routes of inter-human transmission. To overcome the complexities of the infection dynamics, the next-generation matrix method was developed. We deduced expressions which allowed estimating the number of new infections generated by an infected individual through each transmission route at each disease stage, the basic reproduction number and the number of individuals at each disease stage at the outbreak of the infection. The analysis was applied to Buenos Aires city (Argentina). We estimated that 94% of the new infections are generated by individuals in the chronic indeterminate stage. When migration was not considered, the infection disappeared slowly and R 0=0·079, whereas when migration was considered, the number of individuals in each stage of the infection tended to stabilize. The expressions can be used to estimate different numbers of infected individuals in any place where only inter-human transmission is possible. © 2014 Cambridge University Press.

Registro:

Documento: Artículo
Título:Modelling inter-human transmission dynamics of Chagas disease: Analysis and application
Autor:Fabrizio, M.C.; Schweigmann, N.J.; Bartoloni, N.J.
Filiación:Departamento de Métodos Cuantitativos y Sistemas de Información, Facultad de Agronomía, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Av San Martín 4453, C1417DSE, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Departamento de Ecología, Genética y Evolución, Universidad de Buenos Aires, C1428EHA, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Palabras clave:basic reproduction number; mathematical model; next-generation matrix; Trypanosoma cruzi; urban Chagas; Argentina; article; basic reproduction number; birth rate; blood transfusion; Chagas disease; chronic disease; city; congenital disorder; disease transmission; dynamics; epidemic; human; major clinical study; mathematical model; migration; mortality; priority journal; sensitivity analysis; Trypanosoma cruzi; urban area; Chagas disease; epidemiology; parasitology; physiology; theoretical model; transmission; Argentina; Basic Reproduction Number; Chagas Disease; Humans; Models, Theoretical; Trypanosoma cruzi
Año:2014
Volumen:141
Número:6
Página de inicio:837
Página de fin:848
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0031182013002199
Título revista:Parasitology
Título revista abreviado:Parasitology
ISSN:00311820
CODEN:PARAA
Registro:https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_00311820_v141_n6_p837_Fabrizio

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Citas:

---------- APA ----------
Fabrizio, M.C., Schweigmann, N.J. & Bartoloni, N.J. (2014) . Modelling inter-human transmission dynamics of Chagas disease: Analysis and application. Parasitology, 141(6), 837-848.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0031182013002199
---------- CHICAGO ----------
Fabrizio, M.C., Schweigmann, N.J., Bartoloni, N.J. "Modelling inter-human transmission dynamics of Chagas disease: Analysis and application" . Parasitology 141, no. 6 (2014) : 837-848.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0031182013002199
---------- MLA ----------
Fabrizio, M.C., Schweigmann, N.J., Bartoloni, N.J. "Modelling inter-human transmission dynamics of Chagas disease: Analysis and application" . Parasitology, vol. 141, no. 6, 2014, pp. 837-848.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0031182013002199
---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Fabrizio, M.C., Schweigmann, N.J., Bartoloni, N.J. Modelling inter-human transmission dynamics of Chagas disease: Analysis and application. Parasitology. 2014;141(6):837-848.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0031182013002199