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Abstract:

This work explores the potential of online parameter estimation as a technique for model error treatment under an imperfect model scenario, in an ensemble-based data assimilation system, using a simple atmospheric general circulation model, and an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) approach. Model error is introduced in the imperfect model scenario by changing the value of the parameters associated with different schemes. The parameters of the moist convection scheme are the only ones to be estimated in the data assimilation system. In this work, parameter estimation is compared and combined with techniques that account for the lack of ensemble spread and for the systematic model error. The OSSEs show that when parameter estimation is combined with model error treatment techniques, multiplicative and additive inflation or a bias correction technique, parameter estimation produces a further improvement of analysis quality and medium-range forecast skill with respect to the OSSEs with model error treatment techniques without parameter estimation. The improvement produced by parameter estimation is mainly a consequence of the optimization of the parameter values. The estimated parameters do not converge to the value used to generate the observations in the imperfect model scenario; however, the analysis error is reduced and the forecast skill is improved. © 2015 American Meteorological Society.

Registro:

Documento: Artículo
Título:Parameter estimation using ensemble-based data assimilation in the presence of model error
Autor:Ruiz, J.; Pulido, M.
Filiación:Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA/CONICET-UBA), DCAO/FCEyN-Universidad de Buenos Aires, UMI-IFAECI/CNRS, Buenos Aires, Argentina
AICS/RIKEN, Kobe, Japan
Department of Physics, Universidad Nacional del Nordeste, IMIT (UNNE-CONICET), Corrientes, Argentina
UMI-IFAECI/CNRS, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Palabras clave:Bias; Data assimilation; Kalman filters; Model errors; Numerical weather prediction/forecasting; Optimization; Earth atmosphere; Errors; Forecasting; Kalman filters; Optimization; Quality control; Weather forecasting; Atmospheric general circulation models; Bias; Data assimilation; Ensemble based data assimilation; Model errors; Numerical weather prediction/forecasting; Observing system simulation experiments; On-line parameter estimations; Parameter estimation; atmospheric general circulation model; data assimilation; ensemble forecasting; error analysis; Kalman filter; numerical model; optimization; weather forecasting
Año:2015
Volumen:143
Número:5
Página de inicio:1568
Página de fin:1582
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00017.1
Título revista:Monthly Weather Review
Título revista abreviado:Mon. Weather Rev.
ISSN:00270644
Registro:https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_00270644_v143_n5_p1568_Ruiz

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Citas:

---------- APA ----------
Ruiz, J. & Pulido, M. (2015) . Parameter estimation using ensemble-based data assimilation in the presence of model error. Monthly Weather Review, 143(5), 1568-1582.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00017.1
---------- CHICAGO ----------
Ruiz, J., Pulido, M. "Parameter estimation using ensemble-based data assimilation in the presence of model error" . Monthly Weather Review 143, no. 5 (2015) : 1568-1582.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00017.1
---------- MLA ----------
Ruiz, J., Pulido, M. "Parameter estimation using ensemble-based data assimilation in the presence of model error" . Monthly Weather Review, vol. 143, no. 5, 2015, pp. 1568-1582.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00017.1
---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Ruiz, J., Pulido, M. Parameter estimation using ensemble-based data assimilation in the presence of model error. Mon. Weather Rev. 2015;143(5):1568-1582.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00017.1