Abstract:
The development of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)-Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) Seasonal Prediction System (SPS) is documented. In this SPS the ocean initial-conditions estimation includes a reduced-order optimal interpolation procedure for the assimilation of temperature and salinity profiles at the global scale. Nine-member ensemble forecasts have been produced for the period 1991-2003 for two starting dates per year in order to assess the impact of the subsurface assimilation in the ocean for initialization. Comparing the results with control simulations (i.e., without as-similation of subsurface profiles during ocean initialization), it is shown that the improved ocean initialization increases the skill in the prediction of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures of the system for boreal winter forecasts. Considering the forecast of the 1997/98 El Niño, the data assimilation in the ocean initial conditions leads to a considerable improvement in the representation of its onset and development. The results pre-sented in this paper indicate a better prediction of global-scale surface climate anomalies for the forecasts started in November, probably because of the improvement in the tropical Pacific. For boreal winter, sig-nificant increases in the capability of the system to discriminate above-normal and below-normal temperature anomalies are shown in both the tropics and extratropics. © 2010 American Meteorological Society.
Registro:
| Documento: |
Artículo
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| Título: | The INGV-CMCC seasonal prediction system: Improved ocean initial conditions |
| Autor: | Alessandri, A.; Borrelli, A.; Masina, S.; Cherchi, A.; Gualdi, S.; Navarra, A.; Di Pietro, P.; Carril, A.F. |
| Filiación: | Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna, Italy Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA-CONICET), Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
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| Palabras clave: | Boreal winters; Control simulation; Data assimilation; Ensemble forecasts; Extratropics; Global scale; Initial conditions; Optimal interpolation; Reduced order; Sea surface temperatures; Seasonal prediction; Subsurface profile; Surface climate; Temperature anomaly; Atmospheric temperature; Climatology; Data processing; Nickel compounds; Oceanography; Tropics; Forecasting; accuracy assessment; data assimilation; El Nino; ensemble forecasting; extratropical environment; global perspective; marine atmosphere; prediction; salinity; sea surface temperature; seasonal variation; temperature anomaly; tropical meteorology; weather forecasting; winter; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Tropical) |
| Año: | 2010
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| Volumen: | 138
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| Número: | 7
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| Página de inicio: | 2930
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| Página de fin: | 2952
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| DOI: |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3178.1 |
| Título revista: | Monthly Weather Review
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| Título revista abreviado: | Mon. Weather Rev.
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| ISSN: | 00270644
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| Registro: | https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_00270644_v138_n7_p2930_Alessandri |
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Citas:
---------- APA ----------
Alessandri, A., Borrelli, A., Masina, S., Cherchi, A., Gualdi, S., Navarra, A., Di Pietro, P.,..., Carril, A.F.
(2010)
. The INGV-CMCC seasonal prediction system: Improved ocean initial conditions. Monthly Weather Review, 138(7), 2930-2952.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3178.1---------- CHICAGO ----------
Alessandri, A., Borrelli, A., Masina, S., Cherchi, A., Gualdi, S., Navarra, A., et al.
"The INGV-CMCC seasonal prediction system: Improved ocean initial conditions"
. Monthly Weather Review 138, no. 7
(2010) : 2930-2952.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3178.1---------- MLA ----------
Alessandri, A., Borrelli, A., Masina, S., Cherchi, A., Gualdi, S., Navarra, A., et al.
"The INGV-CMCC seasonal prediction system: Improved ocean initial conditions"
. Monthly Weather Review, vol. 138, no. 7, 2010, pp. 2930-2952.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3178.1---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Alessandri, A., Borrelli, A., Masina, S., Cherchi, A., Gualdi, S., Navarra, A., et al. The INGV-CMCC seasonal prediction system: Improved ocean initial conditions. Mon. Weather Rev. 2010;138(7):2930-2952.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3178.1