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We present a stochastic dynamical model for the transmission of dengue that takes into account seasonal and spatial dynamics of the vector Aedes aegypti. It describes disease dynamics triggered by the arrival of infected people in a city. We show that the probability of an epidemic outbreak depends on seasonal variation in temperature and on the availability of breeding sites. We also show that the arrival date of an infected human in a susceptible population dramatically affects the distribution of the final size of epidemics and that early outbreaks have a low probability. However, early outbreaks are likely to produce large epidemics because they have a longer time to evolve before the winter extinction of vectors. Our model could be used to estimate the risk and final size of epidemic outbreaks in regions with seasonal climatic variations. © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.


Documento: Artículo
Título:Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito
Autor:Otero, M.; Solari, H.G.
Filiación:Departamento de Física, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Pabellon 1 Ciudad Universitaria, 1428 Ciudad Autonoma de Buenos Aires, Argentina
Palabras clave:Aedes aegypti; Dengue; Eco-epidemiology; Stochastic models; Aedes aegypti; Climatic variation; Dengue; Disease dynamics; Disease transmission; Eco-epidemiology; Epidemiological models; Low probability; Seasonal variation; Spatial dynamics; Stochastic dynamical model; Susceptible population; Epidemiology; Probability distributions; Risk perception; Stochastic systems; Stochastic models; arrival date; breeding site; climate variation; dengue fever; disease transmission; disease vector; epidemic; epidemiology; health risk; mosquito; numerical model; population distribution; probability; seasonal variation; stochasticity; Aedes aegypti; Arbovirus; article; breeding; climate change; dengue; disease carrier; disease transmission; epidemic; hidden Markov model; human; nonhuman; population density; population dispersal; probability; risk assessment; seasonal population dynamics; seasonal variation; species extinction; stochastic model; temperature dependence; yellow fever; Aedes; Animals; Argentina; Dengue; Disease Outbreaks; Humans; Insect Vectors; Models, Biological; Models, Statistical; Seasons; Stochastic Processes; Urban Population; Aedes aegypti
Página de inicio:32
Página de fin:46
Título revista:Mathematical Biosciences
Título revista abreviado:Math. Biosci.


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---------- APA ----------
Otero, M. & Solari, H.G. (2010) . Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito. Mathematical Biosciences, 223(1), 32-46.
---------- CHICAGO ----------
Otero, M., Solari, H.G. "Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito" . Mathematical Biosciences 223, no. 1 (2010) : 32-46.
---------- MLA ----------
Otero, M., Solari, H.G. "Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito" . Mathematical Biosciences, vol. 223, no. 1, 2010, pp. 32-46.
---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Otero, M., Solari, H.G. Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito. Math. Biosci. 2010;223(1):32-46.